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Strategies for Surviving a Two-Way Crypto Market
A major achievement for any crypto startup is establishing a partnership with one of the world’s largest corporations. Suppose a major player in the logistics industry is looking for new solutions to reduce the cost of supply chain management. To this end, the company’s research department takes into consideration the use of new blockchain technology for real-time tracking of asset provenance. Corporations don’t love reinventing the wheel. It is far more efficient to sign a partnership with a crypto startup already operating in this specific sector. While this is seen as a relatively small step for a big corporation, the new partnership can create an impressive, short-term impact on the valuation of the crypto startup. The earnings deadlines of the stock market are thus replaced by a specific public calendar of announcements and software releases. In particular, the announcement of a partnership can be both the beginning of a bull market or the best catalyst for the Composite Operator to distribute a cryptocurrency on the way up in such a low liquidity environment. The old Wall Street saying “Buy the rumor, sell the news” is more topical than ever with respect to cryptocurrencies.
Low-priced crypto assets tend to show a much higher percentage of swing moves compared to Bitcoin. As Wyckoffians, we want to develop specific strategies to not only follow the leading or legacy cryptocurrencies, but to also anticipate the rotation of capital in order to catch major moves. Among the four crypto assets in the chart below, ChainLink, a crypto token featuring partnerships with Oracle and Google Cloud, has outperformed the market in the last two months with a 1000% run, while Ethereum classic has severely underperformed Bitcoin.
However, an experienced Wyckoffian must also keep an eye on assets that have underperformed Bitcoin in the last bull run, but shows signs of silent accumulation. Several times we have observed the quick rotation of capital from Bitcoin to other cryptos, especially when the first wave of institutional buying has concluded. Like what transpires in the stock market, profit-taking phases in Bitcoin determine “two-way markets.” This selection process is extremely important. Cryptos like Ethereum, Ethereum Classic and IOTA are in an interesting structural position.
Let’s analyze IOTA, a crypto token for the Internet of Things. Supply signature is not consistent throughout the last reaction: after the initial selling off the top, volume drops. After the temporary commitment above the AR level, the texture changes and high volatility comes in, but we do not see still commitment below significant lows supported by volume. A bullish story? An entry is still premature, and we need to patiently wait for signs of demand at lower levels or Ease of Movement to the upside. Sign of emerging leadership on the IOTABTC ratio will be decisive too to confirm a rotation scenario. In case the accumulation scenario is validated, a more than six months consolidation, a remarkable period in the crypto sphere where high volatility produces remarkable counts very quickly.
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