[Frantz Herr]

Everyone, I know it is difficult to start a new thread, so I will put a new post at the top of the page when it seems needed and we can reply to it instead of hunting through the whole forum…

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Friends, what is your opinion?

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[skoutasg]

Arkadiy:  My my count accumulation is strong especially off the high meaning the Smart Money is plus inventory so much so only a 2-stage accumulation phase or strong upthrust may be likely.  Trade only.  Best of luck, not my cup of tea.

[Frantz Herr]

Compare the latest column of X’s to the analogue column in June…  E vs R?

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Hi Frantz. Thanks for your reply and help. I think the end is near. What do you think of the other principle below?

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[Frantz Herr]

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

Good afternoon Frantz! the color system is the segments to be counted. and simple mouving avg 20. IMHO

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[Frantz Herr]

Got it, thanks!

[Curt Miller]

Looks to be accumulation but the SOS looks to be a minor sign of strength.  It still looks like it could remain in the trading range until it breaks out of the June highs.

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Hi Curt and skoutasg, this is what I was thinking. If I take the first 1/2 40.3 then stop 34.10. if the price moves up second 1/2 43.4 (43.4 + 40.3 = 83.7 83.7: 2 = 41.85 stop 38.75. Target 62 (and above 100 (theoretically)) 41.85-38.75 = 3.1 this is my risk. 62-41.85 = 20.15 Potential profit 20.15 : 3.1 = 6.5
Risk 1: Profit 6.5
(but that’s a theory)
have a nice day

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[skoutasg]

Under accumulation, a breakout above the trading range (TR) may signal a buy after a test?  IMHO

[ArkadiyRezviy]

VNO

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

momo

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   momo4.png
   

[ArkadiyRezviy]

)

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   momo3.png
   

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Friends, what do you think of these charts? Thanks

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[Kenneth]

Love these Arkadiy.  Thanks for sharing.

[Curt Miller]

Arkediy and Frantz:  I agree with you both on the distribution qualities.  I noticed your PnF shows a $2.50 – $4.50 target.  I still struggle with counting PnF targets on distributional patterns.  Often times I feel like they don’t get hit or the count ends up being a negative number.  Does anyone have some guidance when determining targets on distribution PnF charts?

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Thank you, Kurt. In this situation, I took the size of the box 0.5 for the calculation, because the share price is located at the point of transition from scale to scale (20-100 = 1 $ 10-20 = 0.5 $) Sorry for my English )

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, have you checked out Bruce Fraser’s two YouTube lessons on P&F?  They are free and as I recall he deals with distribution counts in the second one.  Roman also has some great on demand P&F courses if you really want to get down in the weeds with it.  See the directory at the top of this page…

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Franz, maybe you have a link? Thank you.

[Frantz Herr]

Arkediy, here you go: https://youtu.be/1U1BDcqMNXM is Part One; https://youtu.be/qheFxzCO4eI is Part Two

[Frantz Herr]

Arkadiy, just noticed I’ve been misspelling your name – my apologies

[ArkadiyRezviy]

no problem)

[Frantz Herr]

Arkediy, I too think the stock may have more markdown ahead as I believe your vertical and figure charts are suggesting.

MOMO monthly:

 

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Thanks Frantz

[skoutasg]

Gang:  Here’s an interesting chart to start off the new year.  Accumulation or Distribution and why?

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[Kenneth]

I am going distribution based on my range.

Interesting broadening patterns in there while marking up the chart.  Each of the previous broadening patterns erupted in an upward move.  Based on the small ones and this is a very large broadening pattern this will skyrocket.

If one takes them as two separate ranges as Skout has suggested then it makes sense as accumulation and bias is onward and upward.

 

 

 

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[Curt Miller]

Right now its looking like distribution.  The large bearish bar failed to continue changing the bias from bearish to bullish.  However, the move back up is showing higher demand than the prior swing up and looks to be struggling shifting the bias again to bearish.  (E > + R < = Bearish) We wont know for sure until the result resolves itself.  If this ended up being an accumulation range I don’t know I would be taking a trade since the RS appears to be very weak.

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[skoutasg]

Curt:  Thanks for participating and answering the question posed.  I attach my annotated chart, which differs from you and Arkedy in identifying the trading range, albeit yours is a monthly chart.  Does the annotated chart change your interpretation?

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[Curt Miller]

Not really.  I see how you can interpret it as accumulation.  I would need to see price overcome the large bearish bar or at minimum overcome the October high before I would change my bias.

[skoutasg]

Curt:  IMHO.  You may be correct on HTA.  Hope I’m not sounding preachy because nobody knows everything.  It’s best to identify the trading range(s) (TR) first doing so with a minimum of a 10-year chart.  It’s important not to get hung up on what an individual candle does or means, IMHO.   What does the trading range tell you that is the question?  If the Smart money is accumulating, then price will go up; conversely, it will go down if they are distributing, IMHO.  The March low through that idea out the window as many securities previously under reaccumulation reversed direction, cumulating in the March crash.  The Smart Money are not called the Masters of the Universe for nothing.

[Curt Miller]

Skout:  You’re not sounding preachy at all.  The reason why I love this message board is that everyone can share their point of view.  It helps me sharpen my skills by looking at charts in a different way.  (Hopefully it does the same for others).  You make an excellent point about not getting too focused in on one bar and take a step back and look at the whole context.  I can fall victim to this type of analysis where I will focus on a small part of the chart and build my logic around it.

[Kenneth]

Curt: I think a lot of us fall victim to the same thing

[ArkadiyRezviy]

if you followed the rules, you could enter a deal.imho

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   hta1.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Arkediy, nice P&F!  One thing I am observing is the difference in the overall volume signature before the Covid crash and after.  Everybody went away from this stock since March, buyers and sellers.  Even at the March lows, volume was already low as you point out with your red arrows!  It’s a REIT and the whole group has been out of favor, so that’s probably most of the explanation.  There is a large cause; a breakout ought to produce a good effect if we are experiencing R-A.  I think it will take some increased institutional buying interest to get this up and out and reverse the weak relative strength Curt referred to.  In the meantime, if you are long it pays a 4.6% dividend which is not bad!  Skout, HTA is your idea, are you trading it?

[Kenneth]

Nice charts and nice trades in there.  Congrats.

[ArkadiyRezviy]

cdna

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[Frantz Herr]

CDNA: big outperformance, great pick!  The rally off the Covid lows as a spring would have been the ideal entry for a probe if one had their wits about them.  The absorption between Jun – Sep is textbook, and the breakout on strong buying would have been a great entry for the markup that followed.  There is some E vs R in the last few weeks so maybe vulnerable to a reaction but nothing overtly threatening to my eyes.

[ArkadiyRezviy]

tup

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[Frantz Herr]

Gutsy P&F count, taking it at Phase |C|!  Nice!

[ArkadiyRezviy]

tap

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[Frantz Herr]

TAP: I see a descending trendline across the highs of the range.  It was broken on strong buying as confirmation at the beginning of Nov.  Nice trade!

[ArkadiyRezviy]

port4

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

port3

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

port2

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   port2.png
   

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Thank you Franz Do not know how to start a new discussion thread so will reply here under the same thread.

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[Frantz Herr]

Arkediy, Wyckoff Analytics is switching to Slack for the Forums sometime in the near future and that should make things easier to use I am told.  I am going to try something in the meantime to move new posts to the top of the page…

Arkediy, what software do you use for your portfolio tracking?  Thanks!

[ArkadiyRezviy]

if you are interested in the screenshots above, then these are stockcharts (RRG)

[Kenneth]

(RRG) ?  Is this generated by scans or something?

[ArkadiyRezviy]

.

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[Frantz Herr]

Thanks!  Do you use RRG in your trading plan?

[ArkadiyRezviy]

Good afternoon, Franz. I do not use RRGs in my trading plan, but sometimes I can use them to find stocks.

[Kenneth]

Nice way of looking at the chart.  It takes the march madness out of the equation.  Thanks for posting the chart

[skoutasg]

Arkadly:  Think you nailed it, although waiting until the price exits the trading range would be the better part of valor.  This market is ideal for traders, not investors.

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

accomulation.imho

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[Frantz Herr]

Bias Game #77.  My answer is #1.  What does everyone else think?

[Kenneth]

Nice job everyone that went with Stock #1

[Frantz Herr]

Here’s the solution key to this week’s Bias Game

[skoutasg]

My vote is #2. Why?   Rising RSI signal approaching overbought in what we could be identified as a distribution trading range?  IMHO.

[Kenneth]

To start I guess I am the contrarian.  I am going with #2.

#1 has already exhausted a lot of its supply and hit the last support line that we can see on the chart.

#2 is just beginning the distribution from my analysis.

[Kenneth]

[juuvvy]

my answer is #1 as well. very sharp movement down. the second chart looks like its developing the left side of trading range.

[Curt Miller]

Frantz:  I agree with your assessment.  #1 appears to be the better short candidate.  It looks to have broken down through an uptrending trading range is testing the bottom of the range before a markdown.  #2 looks to be more bullish.   Appears to be consolidating in a BUA after an upside breakout of a trading range.  To me, the answer appears to be obviously #1.  However, when they look too obvious I start to second guess myself… I guess its part of the mind games that going on in my head trying to determine the right answer.  :-).

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, I play the exact same mind games lol!

My logic for picking #1 is that we are shown the relative strength of the two choices.  Candidate #1’s rs is turning down below a declining moving average.  Candidate #2’s rs is the exact opposite.  We know what happens later in 2008, so they probably both end up getting hammered, but #1 is already leading the weakness parade to the downside.

[Frantz Herr]

The solution will be revealed Friday.  Let’s see what everybody on here thinks…

 

[Frantz Herr]

[Frantz Herr]

Here is the solution to Bias Game #76.  I had a hard time with this one and ultimately got the wrong answer.  The clue which was bothering me and which I chose to ignore was that volatility and volume never settled down, and we know that in accumulation, volume and volatility diminish as supply is absorbed across the trading range – that didn’t occur.  I described the TR as a ‘hot mess’ which it was, but I didn’t make the correct deduction from that observation.  The flash card concept Roman describes in the notes is cool.

[Kenneth]

Thanks for the solution Frantz.

[Frantz Herr]

YW Kenneth, nice job with your solution!

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   I know WA runs this game on Twitter without initially naming the security.   However, why not name it?   What difference does it make?   Thanks, skout

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   Not sure why this is so unless connected to WA on line learning classes?   As you know, all stock issues are in accumulation or distribution or somewhere in between, so the name should be immaterial, yes?

[Frantz Herr]

Skout, the chart for each Bias Game is from some point in history from which the instrument (it’s not always a stock) either broke out or broke down.  The challenge of the game is to deduce from the price and volume information on the chart what the next move is going to be.  If the instrument was known, you could just go look up its chart and see what happened without having to solve the puzzle…

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   Got it, not in actual time. Thanks for your timely explanation.   Regards, skout

[Frantz Herr]

Skout, if we knew what the stock was we wouldn’t have to solve the problem…

[Kenneth]

Distribution

 

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[Frantz Herr]

Kenneth, Roman has been dropping hints on Twitter that lead me to believe you’ve got the correct answer 😀

[Kenneth]

Wow cool.  Beginners Luck pays off.  Thanks for letting me know and Happy Holidays everyone

[skoutasg]

Ken:   If you’d like to exchange trading ideas, you can reach me at dscrockett@yahoo.com.   Otherwise, no hard feelings.   Best, Skout.

[Frantz Herr]

Trade of the Week.  Who wants to provide the first trade?

[Kenneth]

LTRX

Here is my next chart that I am working on to evaluate a trade.  This is actually how I start the process.

Do not know how to start a new discussion thread so will reply here under the same thread.

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[Frantz Herr]

BTW Kenneth, nice process for your pre-trade analysis!

[Kenneth]

Maybe this could be a topic when we get to slack platform.  Hard to keep track right now with this discussion format.

Discussing ones selection process would be interesting.  What makes a chart desirable to you?  What makes you dig further into a chart at first glance?  That sort of thing.  Just ideas to throw out there.

[Curt Miller]

I like this idea.  Lets try to remember it for the new forum.

[Kenneth]

Here are the other time frames.

Bias is accumulation and long

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[Kenneth]

Monthly

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[Frantz Herr]

Thanks Kenneth!  LTRX is on one of my WL’s so I am really interested in how other sets of eyes are seeing it

 

[Kenneth]

I am actually waiting for a little backup for my POE#1 from the flag pattern that is right on top of resistance.  Maybe we can test that area again? Initial starter.  Going to try a longterm and swing on this one if it reacts well.

This stock recovered nicely from the March sell off and quickly started rising.  It does seem a little weaker than the market right now but given some time will catch up once it hits markup.  Thinking it is still under the radar for right now.

[ArkadiyRezviy]

IMHO)

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[skoutasg]

Kenneth:  Buried on page 5 or 6, there is actually a NEW button with which to start a new thread.

[Kenneth]

Still does not show up for me.  I even saw the original post you had on 4/27/2020 to show the new button but still no go.  WordPress functionality maybe to only allow new after certain amount of posts?

[skoutasg]

Kenneth:  Make sure you are logged in.  The NEW POST button on my look appears on page 5, a post by Frantz Herr, dated 4/26/20.  Try it.

[Kenneth]

skoutasg: Same posts I was referring to.  Still not found the NEW POST button.  Will look again.  Thanks for the help.

[Kenneth]

AXTI 2hr Distribution bias.

Trying to see distribution and hopefully some volume analysis.  I originally saw this as re-accumulation on higher time frame.

[Curt Miller]

Thanks for sharing this Kenneth.  I took the long trade with AXTI and sold out near the bottom of this trading range.  I can’t make heads or tails of this trading range yet.  There appears to be large amounts of supply near the top of the range that looks to be distribution.  Answering Franz’s question (comparing downswings) it looks more bullish.  This first downswing shows more effort and bigger result.  The second swing shows smaller effort and smaller distance covered.

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[Kenneth]

Curt:  It may be entering an apex formation (symmetrical triangle) which makes it hard to work out.  I placed two scenarios on this chart with an attempt at swing analysis as well.

I am seeing more bearish even though it looks like so far the second swing up took more effort there is more selling here from what I can see.  This looks more like re-distribution right now on the second swing pattern.  Less volatility afterwards as well.  That could be the holidays though.

Lets see if this gets close to what Fratz was asking.  Good exercise.

Good exercise so far that is true.

[Frantz Herr]

Good catch on the apex Kenneth!  A P&F chart with volume can often help to see the E vs R of the swings.  This is a 60 minute 3 box reversal $.10 box size chart.  What observations can we make?

 

Something else to think about – as Kenneth mentioned when he first posted this – we should be aware of the bias at the higher time frames, while keeping in mind that changes first occur at the lower time frames…

[Frantz Herr]

https://schrts.co/xVaFfdMt

I apologize for the size of that P&F chart.  Here’s a link to it on Stockcharts that may be more readable…

[Kenneth]

Maybe this answers it?  I am going to have to yell Uncle after this as I think I am missing the point of your questions.  I know you are trying to get me to see something just not sure what else is in there.

[Frantz Herr]

Kenneth, some thoughts: a consolidation is most likely to conclude with continuation in the same direction from which it is entered – to be confirmed or fail; so my initial assumption is reaccumulation.  To confirm or change my bias, I need to see some evidence.  To turn bearish, I want to see bearish Supply dominating in the downswings across the TR.  What do I see?  Just looking at the 2 downswings after the AR: #2 has less spread in its selling bars, so E vs R is less and something is providing an opposing force.  Further, the downswing stops and reverses at a higher level.  The intention of the selling was to drive price below the prior low, and it was unsuccessful.  Again, something is providing an opposing force.  Next I look at the two horizontal substructures and I simply compare the levels where the trading is occurring.  #1 is occurring at a lower price level than #2.  I have to assume that is because there is less Supply available further along in the trading range and/or some opposing force is holding prices at a higher level in #2.  In conclusion, so far I am seeing that Supply is present across the TR, but it looks to me that it can’t achieve the expected result and therefore an opposing force is absorbing it.  That can change and doesn’t mean the timing is right for the TR to end, so ‘maybe’ still Phase |B|.  Thanks for the interesting charts!  Frantz

[Kenneth]

Frantz: Thank you for the detailed insight.  I am going to have to go back through this.  Wow, just wow.  So much further to go on this road.

It looks like I did it again though, set my sights looking for something and fit the scenario into my view and just did not get out of my own way to see something else.

[Frantz Herr]

Kenneth, if I am aware of a tendency I am 90% of the way to overcoming it.  I can be very stubborn, so it has taken me longer than many to learn to think in alternatives lol.  I have no doubt you will soon master it.

You are posting some good looking setups, you have a good process in place to generate ideas.

[Kenneth]

Happy New Year !!!!

[Frantz Herr]

Same to you Kenneth, and to all of Wyckoff Nation on our forum!

[Frantz Herr]

Nice trade Curt, thanks for sharing!  Did you come up with any new exit rules for yourself from this post analysis?  Do you mind if Roman and I discuss your trade in our ‘Anatomy of a Trade’ YouTube series?

[Curt Miller]

Feel free to use it in the Anatomy of a Trade series!  I have not come up with any rules.  I am still learning the post-analysis process.  If you have any suggestions on possible rules I would be interested in hearing them.

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks, watch for it on AoT!

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, I am going to be writing a new blog series this spring based on my experience with this process over the past few years.  “Developing a Rules Based Wyckoffian Trading Plan Using Post-trade Analysis”.  Hopefully it will be helpful to others.

[Curt Miller]

I am looking forward to it!

[Frantz Herr]

Kenneth, good observations!  Now take a look at the two downswings and do your relative/comparative analysis.  What do you see?

[Kenneth]

relative/comparitive analysis?

[Frantz Herr]

Compare the two swings – distance traveled, volatility, intention, E vs R (sorry, I know this is going to be covered in WTC II).  Can you draw some conclusions about which looks more bearish… bullish…?

[Frantz Herr]

What observations can you make about the two horizontal consolidation substructures?

[Kenneth]

Here is another trade setup at a lower time frame – PLTR 1 hr.  Second try at posting this.  Can not create new discussion topic so replying.

Using higher time frames as bias direction.  Coming off of up trend into non trending with a CHoCH and CHoB

POE#1 probing buy point is now at the top of the ST area trading range.  This look to me as a higher level absorption of supply based on the quiet volume and the test of TR on lower volume and HH’s/HL’s.

S/L just under ST area at around $ 25.00 or with a quick move to just under support at the top of the ST Area TR after a small movement or after test.

 

 

[Frantz Herr]

PLTR!  IPO end of August.  On my October 30 and November 6 WL’s and I didn’t pull the trigger…

The rally in November was up nearly 3x.  On the HTF’s the stock has held well above one half of the November rally and is currently in a good closing position for December.  However, it has been unable to overcome the important down bars as yet, so Supply still appears to be present.  It is in an apex formation, and they usually resolve in a strong move but the ultimate direction of the move is often hard to read beforehand.  Long tactics for me could be a stop buy placed at 30ish.  If Skout is correct, the sell stop for a short could be placed at 25ish.  GL!

[Frantz Herr]

[Kenneth]

Frantz: Thanks for the new chart.  Actually see a distribution pattern in there as skout pointed out yesterday.  Have never shorted a stock even after all this time as it is always buy low sell high for me.

Although, it looks like people are having fun in this range so it might even stay in there.

A trade for me would be a break of the support line as you have marked and wait for backup confirmation instead of a BOE of support.  Those gaps down there I think will show major support in this area.  Will stand aside and paper trade this one.

One thing I have realized by going through these charts recently is identifying that I am always looking for that long trade and really passing by shorting.  Have to thank Skout there because he makes me relook.

 

[Kenneth]

Here is another view.  Looks messy with all the arrows but was trying something from the BIAS game that we just did with the flash cards.  It looks like I will definitely benefit from WTC II course coming up.

The Redistribution after MSOW is what I saw from Frantz’s post above.

The area here looks a bit different with the vol analysis.  Selling on increased volume dominates so bias would be bearish.

Skouts? does this look anything in the bar park?

[Frantz Herr]

I like your analysis Kenneth.  I’m noticing that yesterday’s down Sbar has EOM relative to most of its analogs in the TR.

[skoutasg]

Ken:   Is the bias up (stock under reaccumulation) or down (stock under distribution)?   By your comments, I’m thinking you believe this stock is under reaccumulation?   For my 2-cents, I believe we are looking at distribution, IMHO. skout

[Kenneth]

skoutasg: Nice call

[Kenneth]

Yes bias is up.  reaccumulation.  I seem to have lost that in my attempts to post this.  I see it more accumulation long bias because of the volume analysis.  That could be all a bunch of nonsense as well.  Mostly the second test on reduced volume as mentioned above.

Definitely let’s see.  First time looking at lower time frames so entry and exit could be very tight.  Might end up waiting for a SBar entry.  Interesting to say the lest.

[Kenneth]

Frantz do you want to set up another discussion topic for new trade of the week or do we continue with the same thread

[Frantz Herr]

Good question.  This trade of the week idea is a work in process, so what does everyone else want to do?

[Kenneth]

Not sure how this works but potential swing trade this week from re-accumulation.

POE on SBAR 5.20 First SL 4.70

Wait on BOE at top of TR and wait for confirmation retest.

 

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[skoutasg]

Ken:   Okay, posted below another look, which looks like distribution rather than reaccumulation to me, although unresolved?  Only time will tell which end the price pops out?

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[Kenneth]

Agree, that is the whole idea of this exercise.  Right now I am the contrarian view.  Thank you both for the feedback.

 

[Frantz Herr]

Kenneth, thanks!  LT support and resistance:

[Frantz Herr]

I am noticing the cluster of Supply that came out in the current price zone in 2013/2014.  It isn’t surprising that price is consolidating in this same area.  I wonder how much absorption is going to be required here for a bullish resolution of this TR?

[Kenneth]

So what you are looking at here is a potential distribution pattern correct to be confirmed.  Makes sense and I did not see that scenario to be honest.

The second entry option above seems to be a better trade setup i.e.  Wait on BOE at top of TR and wait for confirmation retest for a long.

This could setup for a short as skoutasg says below.

 

 

[Frantz Herr]

No, I don’t see this structure as distribution.  I was looking back in the chart to see where selling occurred because that is normally where you would expect price to consolidate as is the case here.  What conclusions can you draw from the level of Supply now vs 2013-2014?

[Kenneth]

Totally misunderstood.  Thanks for correcting me.

Here is my conclusions on the supply level now.

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[Frantz Herr]

STXS Weekly through my set of eyes:

[Frantz Herr]

The first assumption is that price will leave the TR in the same direction as it entered, to be confirmed or fail so I am looking for signs of accumulation/Supply absorption.  What do you see?  I see R-A so far.  I like to establish probe positions at support, so my ideal POE #1 if I was trading this would be on the weekly spring early Nov or the confirming Sbar after it.  Stop around 2.80  POE #2 for me would be the Sbar last week, stop under the low of that bar and then I would wait and see what happens at resistance because of the Supply that is expected to come out – note the volume spike in June.  There are several different outcomes that can occur at resistance, I would be thinking about each and know what I would do in different situations (the October low could be Phase |C| or it might just be a reaction in |B|).  The two entries in the TR would give me my core position to trade around if this turns out to be the MSOS rally.  Then I would wait for the BUA for additional entries that I could use for my swing trading.  That’s how I would approach it, but everyone is different.

[Curt Miller]

Frantz:  Thanks for sharing your entry strategy.  I like the idea of “probe” entries but I haven’t worked up the guts to buy at support as price is going down.  I like to enter a full position after a test and confirmation.  I’m better at scaling out on trades that scaling in to trades.  Something I can work on in the new year.

[Frantz Herr]

Sounds good Curt.  The thing about buying as close to the danger zone as possible is it helps me have more size for my risk, so I like that.  Good bases for the growth stocks I like to buy tend to occur in general market corrections, and we haven’t had one in a while.

[Kenneth]

The SBar for POE #1 would be a starter position for me as the POE #1 is a little nerve racking for me as Curt points out.  It is good to see a lot of these POE in hind sight and hopefully graduate up to that.  Unfortunately can never find these types of entries and am usually finding them after the fact.  It took me some time to learn “the wait for the backup”, never had a definition for it before wyckoff, as I was afraid to not catch the big move and never get that chance again.  Now I wait for the Back up and do not chase any more.  I still get that nervous twitch but still back away.

POE #2 SBar last week would truthfully would be my starter and then BUA as you say.

The outline you wrote is exactly what I am trying to move into with my trading.  It is just finding those little gems.

[Frantz Herr]

Sounds good.  What do you guys think about this trade of the week discussion topic/idea for the forums so far?

[Kenneth]

This has been great.  Thanks

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   Like the idea. Keep them coming.

[skoutasg]

My assumption is your idea is long since you believe we are looking at a reaccumulation TR?  May I take a contrarian view?  I think we are looking at a distribution TR, therefore, a possible short idea?  IMHO.  Hopefully, we’ll have some more folks offer their opinions as well?

[Kenneth]

Of course.  Thanks for commenting and taking the contrarian view.

 

initial Stop would be 4.35 and not 4.70.

[skoutasg]

Ken:   Okay, I’ve reassessed and believe you may be correct and me wrong.  Looks like a reaccumulation structure beginning with the high of 10.85 (10-year wkly.).  Currently, in phase D of a reaccumulation TR.

[skoutasg]

Frantz: Like your idea, but couldn’t resist this monstrosity, BIIB, accumulation or distribution?

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   BIIB.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Skout, the industry group RS has been improving recently (from MarketSmith – 38 out of 197 groups)

 

[Kenneth]

Chart for TYME

Initial Analysis

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   TYME-Weekly.png
   

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   TYME-Weekly-Compare.png
   

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   TYME-Supply-Figures.png
   

4. 

   TYME-Daily.png
   

[Kenneth]

Update: Took first profits from TYME.

[Kenneth]

Just an update on this one.  As mentioned above I was waiting for price to pull back a little.  Got filled on that pullback.

[Kenneth]

Curt & Frantz: Limit Buy @ 1.10.  Truthfully was not expecting to get hit.

[Curt Miller]

Was it a limit buy or did you use some other trigger to enter?

[Frantz Herr]

1.09ish?

[Frantz Herr]

Kenneth, nice charts.  Are you trading this currently?

[Kenneth]

Here is a normal trade for me.  Forget all the Wyckoff analysis I have on the chart as this was part of WTC I homework.  Notice the trade in 2017 and partial profits in 2020.  Not all trades turn out like this but it is how I used to trade before Wyckoff.  Now I can time things a lot better and am more confident in my analysis.  But want to trade this way shorter term and am trying to find my legs.  See and take profits sooner.  Look at all the missed opportunity in there.

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   ZNGA-Weekly.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Very nice ZNGA trade Kenneth.  From what you have posted, you seem to have a talent for position/campaign trading.  Have you considered maintaining a core long-term position in your stocks and trading around it using your swing tactics?  It is important to know yourself and structure your market activities so they are consistent with who you are.

[Kenneth]

That is exactly what I am trying to learn by learning Wyckoff.  I am seeing things a lot better now as per the chart above.  Like I said the wyckoff info there was only just recently done after finishing the WTC I class.  The difference is unbelievable what pops out on the charts now.

I am trying to move out of the position/campaign trading and do shorter time frames.  More trading than investing.  Maybe swing trading as outlined in WTC I class will be the next evolution.

[Kenneth]

Crap I really hate this platform of communication.  I think with wordpress there is a minimum limit of posts one needs to make to get the advanced options to create a new post and edit.

 

I did not mean “move out” but “enhance the”

[Kenneth]

Have been trying to enter since last week but just not giving me my price.  Trying to get an initial position for longer term trade.  I am trying to transition from investor to trader and am finding it a little hard to think of trades only lasting a small time.  My trades usually take months to years to finally play out.  Long term.

[Curt Miller]

Kenneth:  Nice job with the analysis.  I agree with the accumulation.  The only threatening thing I see for now is the huge supply bar on Aug 26th that could see a reaction.  Maybe take partial profits there?

[skoutasg]

Ken:   As you likely surmised, this stock is likely in an accumulation trading range.  When it emerges, nobody knows.  A break above the TR may signal a buy, so you might pull the trigger after a retest.  No doubt you are evaluating this stock based on its future prospects.  Strictly, a speculative play.  Happy trading!

[Kenneth]

Actually no, not as a future play.  Long term campaign.

[Frantz Herr]

Skout, can you put volume bars on your chart?  I can’t make the adjustment/transition in my head to using your volume oscillator for the volume signature…  Thanks!

[skoutasg]

Per your request, here is the revised chart of BIIB.

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   BIIB-1.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks Skout.  Here’s a monthly chart.  There are a number of reasons why it appears to me that BIIB’s TR from early 2016 is accumulation.  If I were considering this for investment I would zone in on the structure since October 2019 because it could currently be in Phase |C| both locally and for the entire nearly 5 year consolidation.  A large cause to say the least.

 

 

[skoutasg]

Frantz: re BIIB:   Thank you for your assessment which I total agree.  Looks like the last leg down initiated some public selling by looks of the volume?  Smart money continuing to accumulate before they initiate markup?  No saying how long this dance will continue?

 

[Curt Miller]

BIIB is hard to read on a small time frame.  I had to zoom out to the monthly to get a good view.  One thing I am trying to look at more are supply zones and demand zones.  To me the chart looks like distribution.  When the price hits the prior supply zone it gets rejected.  If I were trading this I will see how it reacts near the support.  If it breaks through on a sign of weakness I would look to short.

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   BiiB.gif
   

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, good job identifying that first bar because it establishes the zone of selling that needs to be overcome.  No ability as yet to do that.

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   Twitter had a post considering BIIB #75 (unless I am mistaken)  but the chart’s time frame was thru 1999, so hardly timely information.  See the chart current weekly chart above.  Thank you.

[Frantz Herr]

Guys, thanks for the feedback.  I have read your suggestions and I agree.  I was thinking about how to get a more consistent dialogue going and I think it would help if we had a format that we can all be on the same page with.  Here’s an idea that is in keeping with the objectives of this forum topic:  “Trade of the Week”.  The thought would be that on a rotating basis, someone posts a trade that they either currently have on or was done within the last week.  It has to be an actual trade.  The person that took the trade would give their rationale for the trade, show their entries, describe their risk management protocol, show the exits or target if the trade is still on, any emotional issues they are dealing with as a result of the trade, and so on.  Forum participants can then make observations about the trade and we can get a nice discussion going.  As moderator I would make sure that all comments are constructive and helpful.  This might get more people participating and it would be a great way to sharpen our trading skills.  What do you guys think?

Curt I was hoping the ‘New Post’ glitch could be corrected.  I can’t tell when it is done because as moderator this posting issue doesn’t affect me for whatever reason – so I need you guys to let me know if it is still an issue…  I will pass your comments to Wyckoff Analytics again.  They are off this week for the holiday so don’t expect an immediate reply.

Curt and Skout, I will also pass your comments about getting the word out about the forums to Roman.

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   Good suggestion. One more, post a weekly chart with no annotation.   Ask the viewers, whether they think the security is under accumulation or distribution, and why?  WA already posts its “bias game” on this site and Twitter, but it does not name the security or solicit comments.  The responses surely would be educational.  Let’s face it determining if the security is going up or down after it leaves its trading range is in everyone’s interest.

 

[Frantz Herr]

Skout, I really like your idea, so how about this as a way to approach your suggestion: when the Bias Game is posted each week, before the solution is known, we can each post our own solutions here?  That way we aren’t reinventing the wheel, we get to practice, and we’ll know the correct answer in a couple of days…

[Frantz Herr]

Guys, I just got some good news about the Forums back from Roman:

“Thank you, Frantz.

We are planning to change Forums to more friendly Slack. This will facilitate conversation more. Probably end of January. “

[Curt Miller]

Frantz:  Thanks for the response.  I would be interested in the “Trade of the Week” idea as well.  Maybe the switch to Slack will help.  I still think the forum needs a lot more promotion.  I wasn’t aware of this until I came across it by accident.

[Kenneth]

I was not aware of it either.  Came across by accident.  Slack or Discord switch should help as well.

[skoutasg]

$DJI/SPY:  For a period, the March low looked like a gigantic automatic reaction (AR) off the high.  For now, I’ve relabeled the former AR a selling climax (SC).  If correct, we now label the rally which topped on or about June 3rd from the March low, the automatic reaction off the SC.  A gigantic cause and effect.  Since June 3, the Dow has shown two legs up.  The structure to me signals distribution, or more correctly, a redistribution off the prior SC?  So does the chart for the SPY etf.  What do my fellow Wyckoffians think?  Your feedback is welcome…

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   DJI.png
   

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   SPY-2.png
   

[skoutasg]

Thing is, what’s the event that is going to trigger the markdown?  Anyone?

[skoutasg]

Gang:  As time has progressed, I now believe the Dow may be under a reaccumulation structure to what target price I could not venture a guess.  Dow is already at a historical dividend yield of 2%.  Where she stops no one knows!

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   DJI.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Skout, did you get a chance to hear Roman’s market review on WMD last week?  He posted bits and pieces of it on Twitter.  Great analysis imo.  In the near term, sentiment levels are extremely bullish, so maybe we’ll get something to cool them off before anything sustainable can take hold.  My 2 cents.  Frantz

[skoutasg]

Frantz:   What they can do to get this forum going?  Maybe encourage the students to take part?  Hoping for the best.  Skout

[Curt Miller]

Frantz:  I agree with Skout.  I think this could be a great forum for a lot of people to share their charts and get feedback but it seems like very few capitalize on it.  If Roman could promote the forum a little more during classes I think more people would take advantage.  The difficulty adding a new  post (needing to go back to the original post of the forum) isn’t helping people from posting either.  I just wrapped up the WTC 2 class and there were a lot of great students in attendance that I wish I could have reached out to but I understand the privacy issues.  This Wyckoff forum could be a great way to interact.  It just needs a bit more promotion.

[Frantz Herr]

[skoutasg]

Frantz:  Looks like your bias is down?  Let me take a contrarian view.  Looks to me the insiders are accumulating shares at the reaction low (ST) on or about 10/29 based on the increased volume.  The second reaction low on or about 11/11 did not prompt public selling, as evidenced by the decline in volume.  Could this low be a test (ST) which signaled the public was uninterested in deposing of more shares?  A signal to the insiders to markup the price?  Thus, the said TR may be a reaccumulation structure as opposed to a distribution structure?  Time will tell.  IMHO.

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[Frantz Herr]

Thanks Skout.  Yes, I’m looking for some further downside, but I see what you are seeing.  A successful test of the spring is less likely after today’s action imo, but it can still happen.  Let’s wait and see what happens.

[Frantz Herr]

My take on the current situation for the overall US stock market

 

[Author]

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