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DISCUSS YOUR CHARTS, ANALYSIS AND TRADING
Be an active member of Wyckoff Nation! Post your chart analysis – past, present or future trades; or post about trading setups or process in general. Discuss Wyckoff related questions with your peers. Make a post and engage with your fellow Wyckoffians!!
FB: Let’s play the bias game with FB. Accumulation or distribution, and why?
Agree with Arkad with short term distribution
Would say needs confirmation as it is looking a little undecided on which way it wants to go to be honest.
Views on CNFR?
Weekly is starting markup?
CHoB and CHoCH
This is another that did not show much negative price reaction from the March Madness dips
Ken: Agree with your assessment. IMHO, confirmed by the daily chart as well. Buckle up for a wild ride.
Long term Monthly has been distribution with it looking like it is forming a multi-year accumulation base.
Intermediate Weekly bias is accumulation.
What I like is the near non existant march madness dip that is everywhere.
Bars: March madness bars have very little effect with subsequent lows as it only scores a HL. This suggests that strong hands are involved here.
KEN RE CLRO: You nailed it. IMHO, await earnings report on 3/30 for further evaluation.
CVS: Yes, this much maligned blue chip may be poised to exit its accumulation trading range (TR). Will Smart Money await earnings on 2/16 before it commits to the campaign? IMHO.
Base Game # EBAY )
Arkadiy: Undecided on EBAY. Price just came out of a reaccumulation range on the daily chart. The weekly chart evidences a buying climax (BC) which TR will turn out as another reaccumulation or distribution. Therefore, I’m out for now. IMHO.
stoutasg,the question is what do we have – re-accumulation or distribution. I am confused by E / R.If you have an effort expressed the result should be in proportion to the effort. If a stock has been moving up every day with a two point spread every day with ten thousand shares and it breaks into the high ground with twenty thousand shares and a half point spread for a couple of days straight we know supply is coming in and is overcoming the demand. This is an effort that is not having an proportionate result, therefore the stock is likely to be in trouble and have a reversal in its movement.Time will put everything in its place
Arkadiy: Good observation. I’m a long-term investor, not trader, so my bias is always on the weekly chart. IMHO, all trading ranges are manipulations initiated by the Smart Money. The Wyckoff method is a study of these manipulations, IMHO. I am a Wyckoff believer, but I am not wedded to classic Wyckoff. Imagine if today’s chart tools were available to Mr. Wyckoff? At the end of the TR, price can only move up if the Smart Money is accumulating; down if the Smart Money is distributing. Therefore, what is the TR telling us about the “Composite Man’s” intentions should be our focus? My 2-cents.
Here is my interpretation of the price action for accumulation.
at present for me it is not good
big shadow and big volume
K: it seems to me that more proof is needed.
Maybe I’m wrong.
Agree needs confirmation but it could be ok a small position for a campaign setup. There is still that area of resistance above marked in the yellow lines as well.
So maybe starter position in this area marked LPS BUC with SL just below the uptrend line. Maybe better is wait for SBar here on low volume.
I just really like the supply line descending there with HH’s and HL’s
And the two large volume lines at the beginning and the ending of the range there I do not think are that much of a problem because they do not carry any supply with them. The last one was just a test of the upper TR.
This price action would be very frustrating for me. Looks like it is finally going to take off and it just does not, weak hands leaving left and right.
My first post of a chart annotation. Thoughts on my interpretation are most welcome!
Well, I guess there was no interest in my post. But, this is a 1 minute chart of the YM futures. I started annotating 1 minute charts when Roman B posted a video containing a paper trade he was doing using the 1 minute NQ. He went through his thought process and worries during different steps of the trade. I found this interesting. I’ve discovered that you can see a LOT of Wyckoff on a 1 minute chart especially during the European hours. Anyways, I hope somebody finds this helpful!
Hi martied, thanks for your post! Price and volume behavior is always interesting regardless the time frame. Do you trade intraday?
I don’t trade intraday myself, but I have been through the tape reading sessions Roman did last fall most of which were devoted to the lower time frames. For his intraday trades I recall him saying he uses the 1 minute interval to define structure after he has analyzed the environment at the higher time frames. He wants to know whether he’s trading with the higher time frame trend or counter to it, so he develops his strategy off the higher time frames and uses the 1 minute for execution.
Many of us on the forums are trading during market hours here in the US. It is cool if you are operating in what are the overnight markets for us. Please continue to post your charts, the object is for us to learn from one another.
I’m using the 1 minute so I can see a lot Wyckoff in a short period of time and if watching live my feedback from the market is usually very quick. The 1 minute charts are mostly for learning purposes but I will be doing paper trades to see if my judgement concerning the structures I see are correct as well as getting a feel for the markets. There is nothing better than live markets to learn from! I will look into Roman’s tape reading videos, thx for the info and thx for your feedback!
M: Can you give us a stock symbol and chart length? Thank you.
Well, the point is to interpret using only the Wyckoff method as taught by Roman. No symbol, price or chart length should be required. I think I’ll keep it to myself until I have some replies to my interpretation. Thanks!
skoutasg: hate to spoil the party, its the Dow Jones mini futures contract – it says it right there in the middle of the chart! maybe I´ll comment on the annotations later.
Good afternoon friends, what do you think about this and what are your opinions on the labeling
Let me play devils advocate here and definitely just an option to think about.
Long term my opinion is still distribution. There was long term support that was broken through easily enough on lesser volume. This looks to me like it has become resistance that has had three attempts against it and that is where price is sitting right now.
Short term daily would like to present a distribution pattern.
So bias opinion for me is distribution long term and short term until there is more evidence.
Sign Of Weakness (SOW): is an action which shows that SUPPLY is in control. The reaction will decline with a widening spread, increased price weakness, and increased volume, evidence of increased and heavy selling, this is BEARISH. The (SOW) is usually proceeded by a T/R. If the T/R was in an uptrend it would have been stopped by the (PSY), (BC), (AR), (ST). The T/R will end, on the far right hand side, it may end its move with a classic (UT) or (UTAD) or it may NOT. It may simply have a (SOW) and a (LPSY) with perhaps lower tops and lower bottoms. Any possible or potential (SOW) must be confirmed, denied or left in doubt by the SUBSEQUENT rally. The critical thing is NOT HOW FAR the stock rallies, the critical thing is HOW it RALLIES. If it rallies with a gradual decrease in demand, evidenced by a narrowing spread and decreased volume, and with a lower top this COMPARATIVE lack of DEMAND would PROVE and CONFIRM that the previous reaction was a (SOW). Thus DO NOT take a speculative position until you see an (UT) or an (UTAD), or where there is no (UT), the first place to take a position is on the (LPSY) after the (SOW) and aim to pyramid with the coming trend.
P.S.Kenneth,thanks for the kind words for me
I think accumulation
if it accumulation target about 70S
S9:I think more, plus we have two segments to count. Given that small-cap stocks are stronger than large-cap stocks, this might be a good game. Maybe.
*stronger at the moment.
yes 70 minimal
AR: Nice call identifying the selling climax (SC) using volume. Looks like an accumulation trading range. May breakout on this leg. If so, await test before entering?
Stutags,thanks. i think the entry time was on friday using stop below 32 imho
AR: No problem with the move. I think you called it correctly. Best case, it could take a leg down before completing the accumulation, then breakout? Worst case, it flips to redistribution from here? Only the Master’s of the Universe know for sure. Happy trading.
Thanks again, I just don’t know English well, that’s why I’m laconic
Price action is multi culture, no words necessary. Love seeing your charts as they speak way more than anything.
Ebay. Is it good signal tp buy? Target 85-100$
S9/EBAY: IMHO, agree good entry point as price has broken the most recent reaccumulation TR. Happy trading.
Dzien dobry :), it looks like an upthrust after distribution, at least wait for a backup. There was no buying climax at the beginning of the trading rage. Should have bought during grudzien 15 and afterwards …
Am seeing Distribution as well. As Peter mentions it was better buying during December.
we will see.
stop loss on gap
hey z Polski jestes?
nie, ale moja dziewczyna jest Polska
jak mnie rozpoznałeś?
Napisałeś dzień dobry
your charts have labels in polish so that was easy …:)
ta proste to było
nie umiem dobrze angielskiego ale czy zrozumiałem ze jakąs ksiązke napisałes?
1. British Pound spring yesterday, wait for test;
2. Natural Gas classic Wyckoff action – see chart. Annotations on the figure and weekly chart are automatically transferred from the daily which sometimes is a little confusing.
Peter, I’m curious about your natty trade management?
Frantz, I trade mainly futures based on wyckoff. No indicators or candle charts, just basic OHLC and volume. My trade management is based on position sizing and risk no more than 1 % to 2 %. Mentors were Hank (RIP) who became a good friend and van Tharp as to position sizing. Hank actually asked me to include a soybean trade in his book which I had published live.
I dont day trade, unless I get stopped out immediately, otherwise I follow thru as much as I can take emotionally – as you know which is a strain on your psyche sometimes –
Today I bought the (potential) spring in 30 year bonds ZB and went short corn ZC.
As stocks are concerned I see an UTAD on AMZN.
But I dont trade a lot, but wait for high conviction trades.
Peter//ZB: Respectfully, are you looking to enter a short-term trade as you indicate you bought? IMHO looks like distribution. I concur with your comments on AMZN (UTAD = distribution) and short /ZC (BC). By your post, I’m assuming you did not mind comments?
Peter, respect! You remind me of Stanley Kroll. It is very cool that you were friends with Hank Pruden, and I can tell that risk management is first and foremost in your executions. I was wondering about your preferred setups, although looking at the charts of the trades you mentioned gives me a clue. I love your approach of waiting for high conviction trades, did you have to learn to be patient or does it come naturally? Thanks!
Frantz: thanks for your interest, I am happy to answer any questions because at this time I am home/office bound, cant travel and have concentrated on my trading with plenty of time.
For me, patience and restraint are the key to paradise. Fomo and its cousin – not pulling the trigger – are the road to perdition. To safely navigate between these two opposing fields is the challenge and KISS.
To stay the course, for the former I use the basic Wyckoff methodology, waiting for ending actions. Important here is position sizing. I have a basic size I go into every trade and double up quickly as soon as the trade works out (in accordance with Wyckoff principles). When early and my conviction is not so high I go in with half the contracts. Example the T-bond trade I put on Friday, here I went in half size because the spring was not completed yet, and, therefore potential only.
Also, in groups that are strongly correlated, like grains, I start with just one group member before expanding. Example my corn trade Friday, I intend to add soybeans only after the corn trade has worked out.
To overcome the latter, Hank told me this story about WWII british pilots using a statue to overcome stage fever before a mission which they placed on a spot high up in their quarters where everyone could see it. So most of the time the statue was facing the wall, but when a mission was imminent, they turned it around facing the crews. Silly, but when everyone saw it facing them they lost their fear and proceeded!
To apply this principle I use a little wooden buddha (see pic) which I put on my trade sheet containing potential trades in front of my trading monitor: when trades are in stalking phase, the buddha faces me and I will not hesitate. It also keeps me from straying away into emotional trades or trades I didn’t plan thoroughly. It actually works!
BTW, which Merrill Lynch office did you work out of? Long time ago, I had a contractual arrangement with Merrill out of NYC.
Hi Peter, thanks for the reply and sorry for my delayed answer; life sometimes intervenes…
I believe you have identified two of the major pitfalls I routinely face: FOMO and not pulling the trigger. I am currently watching a Mark Douglas workshop on YouTube. It’s all about execution. I can be highly proficient at Wyckoffian analysis and fail miserably if I am unable to execute when it is giving me an edge. I love your Hank WW II story and your Buddha adaptation! I use something a little different but it keeps me between the ditches.
I haven’t always paid heed to money management, and most of the time I got away with it. Unfortunately for me, in 2012 I got killed in precious metals mining stocks and learned my lesson and it won’t happen again.
Thanks for the screen shot of your work area. I see the KISS principle at work.
I started at Merrill in 1985 in my home town of Lancaster, PA after leaving a previous career as a road warrior. Charlie Merrill brought Wall Street to Main Street and it was a great company and culture. Unfortunately, Stanley O’Neal and a consenting board of directors destroyed the franchise. Still, it was the best job ever invented for a while, and I built lifelong relationships with many great people during my 32 year career.
Thanks again for your feedback.
SPY/ALERT: This ETF on daily chart is now under distribution, IMHO. Comments?
To me it’s still too early to call it distribution. There appears to be a change of behavior accompanied with high volume. I don’t see a change of character yet but that could change with price action. I feel like a pullback/consolidation is due but I can’t let my emotions start taking short positions if the price action doesn’t confirm it.
CURT/SPY: Your analysis was correct. Attached a revision chart on the daily. My initial count, view was wrong. Here’s the alternative version. New trading range now forming after BC. IMHO.
Curt: Yes, don’t commit until you are sure the trading range (TR) is complete.
Lately I’ve been having trouble executing on my entries. I do all my research, mark up the chart, determine the bias, etc however when my trigger hits I hesitate to enter the trade. I think because I’m still relatively new to the Wyckoff method of trading I am still lacking confidence. I second guess myself and pass on the trade. Has anyone dealt with anything similar? If so, what have you done to help overcome this?
Curt I am also working through this as well. Did not pull the trigger on a couple now even though I see it sitting on the top of the TR. Hopefully it is temporary and maybe just a little “hectic life syndrome” where work is not allowing me to plan to the extent of where I am confident. Do not want to make a hurried rash trade without a complete analysis.
Frantz. Thanks for those suggestions. Makes sense about the reducing entry size.
Curt, a tendency we share. Two ideas: 1) reduce your entry size ad absurdium, but enter the trade – even if it’s for just one share; and 2) read Mark Douglas
‘Trading in the Zone”.
Ken: Same here with me. I’ve fallen victim to the “hectic life syndrome” as well. Trying to balance my primary career with a side hustle in trading. I’ve got triggers that alert me when action should be taken but for some reason I still want to analyze the chart more and see if there was anything I missed. This delay results in me missing the trade.
Frantz: Thanks for the suggestions. I have read Mark Douglas’ book. Is there any section in particular you feel I should review?
Curt, I really think it’s worth studying the entire book when I’m having issues with my mental game. I just pulled out my copy and I’m going to be reading it again cover to cover myself. Frantz
Frantz, I`ve been reading your rule-based explanation in your SQQQ trade, but cannot match your entries and exit prices (5.73, 5.33) for august 2020. The ETF traded around 20-25 at that time, so what am I reading wrong here?? Thanks.
Hi Peter, first – thanks for reading my blog, and you remind me that I am behind schedule to write the next one in the new series so I am going to get to work!
To answer your question: SQQQ is a leveraged inverse ETF. The way the leverage is achieved is through futures contracts. Every time they roll the contracts there’s slippage which causes the price of the ETF to decay over time. On top of that, the ETF is designed to give you a multiple of the daily change in the underlying index. If you think about how percentages work, a decline of x percent requires a rise of >x to get back to even and this adds to the decay; and in a market uptrend, the compounding effect on an inverse ETF like SQQQ causes very large price declines. Because of the decay, eventually the ETF has to do a reverse split. The charting services all adjust their charts for the splits so that explains the discrepancy: my trades were pre-split and the chart is now post-split. Here’s the history of SQQQ’s splits:
As an aside, I ignored my Rule #1 and took an intraday stab at SPXS last Friday with predictable results (for me). Having rules works for me, but only when I follow them!!!
got it! thanks.
BA: Interesting daily Chart in which price has BUEC. Note also the lack of volume, which ordinarily is the last test by SM to shake out remaining retail sellers prior to markup? However, don’t think the time is right as earnings report not out until 4/28? For me, since the dividend has been suspended, no interest here, but tempting. Your thoughts?
PM: Yuck, I know Philip Morris. We are capitalist are we not? He’s the daily. Looks like the rocket is ready to launch, IMHO? My price target is $144. Your thoughts?
GSK: One ugly chart. IMHO, this baby went from reaccumulation until price action turned to distribution after 3/20/2020, culminating in a selling climax (SC). What’s interesting is what the price action shows so far. My price target is $48.16 if my count is correct. May I have your input, especially those proficient with the figure chart?
Analysis of accumulation in USD/GBP futures based on daily Wyckoff analysis. I am new to this forum but an old loyal Wyckoff hand. Chart seems to be on springboard after levitating into the higher fringes of this trading range and absorbing supply within the tight range over last 7 days.
Peter/GBP/USD: Welcome and thank you for contributing your comments. Hope you do regularly. Not sure if we are talking about the same currency pair as I found a chart under GBP/USD on my platform. Attached my weekly chart, which confirms we are in an accumulation TR. My daily chart also confirms and also documents price has left the TR now heading toward your target. Happy trading.
Thanks, yes, we are talking about the same chart, in my case the Globex March futures. Symbol 6bh1. I only trade futures markets, rarely stocks and options. No day trading.
The figure chart targets work astoundingly accurate in futures. The one shown is just the first one. Should the trade work out, there are much higher objectives later.
Continuing with skout’s suggestion this one I found interesting VRAY: Reaccumulation or Distribution?
XEL: My friends, forget about GME AMC and the rest, let’s get down to basics: Reaccumulation or Distribution?
IMO it is dist
what is it?
AR/SNDL: Automatic reaction (AR) of the apparent low, IMHO.
AR/VNO/XLRE: The question is, when will you pull the trigger? Await exit from the trading range (TR) followed by a retest, imho? My interpretive charts attached below:
Wow some really weird price action lately.
Nokia subjected to a pump and dump? Any other views?
seems like accumulation?
My view on WFC
Intermediate – Distribution so may be in a redistribution area.
Short term Daily – Re-accumulation after that decline ?? Definitely needs confirmation.
Confirmation would be a break above the long term resistance area and top of TR with a sign of strength and conviction.
POE#1 – starter here on the intermediate BUC for those looking to start a campaign. SL would be somewhere in mSOS/LPS area. Not sure to tell the truth.
Swing trade would be BOE to start at top of Range and SL just under long term support and add on with a pullback and test BUC.
Ken/WFC: Agree with S9 that we are looking at accumulation so far, IMHO. Confirmed by both daily and weekly charts.
GME/Gang: Can anyone explain what is going on with this stock? I’ll go out on a limb with my attempt to explain. Your input? As the media has portrayed, the action looks to me like a gigantic short squeeze initiated by the Smart Money (Institutions, Funds, Market Makers). Their only goal was to clear from their books unwanted shares they have been holding for decades. They initiate the squeeze by causing the price to rise, triggering short stops (buy orders) placed by the public or not so smart, uniformed institutions or funds still holding short positions. Media is claiming this was a coup by the public investors, hardly. IMHO.
Skout what you have mentioned is as far as I know as well. Saw it taking off and watched some of the up and down but never understood myself what was happening.
A wonderful forum to learn the method of Wyckoff for a beginner. I have a question. Wyckoff spoke on the concept of a Springboard. He mentioned it numerous times in his book. It was a position where he believed the stock was prepared for a mark-up. What is the criteria for a Springboard? In a Bullish scenario do we need to see a rally with good spread and volume and then the reaction having lower volume (drying up)? The chart is an example in what I am referring to. The black line shows strong demand coming into the market. Thus, we have a strong rally. The following reaction green line shows supply is low compared to the rally.
Skout: Here is some discussion of what happened through the lens of the Wyckoff Method. https://twitter.com/i/status/1355267170381524997
what about cdr (cyberpunk2077)
S9: Not sure of the stock symbol? GPW or CDR?
cdr on gpw
BYND and BWA are out of my price range as I prefer lower priced stocks.
BWA was a chart that I posted a couple of days ago and skout made a good observation that I think is right on the nose about the redistribution changing to accumulation.
Changes will happen on the lower time frames before they are seen on the higher. There are a few other stocks in this sector – Auto Parts – where I have seen activity recently as well. Maybe this is due to people wanting to avoid public transport due to 2020?
What are other’s view here. The following stock fits my price range.
Long term bias Monthly Accumulation
Medium term bias Weekly Accumulation
Short term bias Daily – Break out already.
Since this has already broken out on an SOS / SBar.
Something that might be interesting is entry analysis. How would one approach this stock for entries. Might be good topic for the Slack channel as well.
For me POE#1 is a pull back to 2.10 area for starter and then POE#2 would be a BOE 2.55. S/L 1.65 which is two supports back.
KEN/SYPR: After the action on 1/26 you may have already given up on your idea?
I worked this one up last week and totally forgot about it. Do not usually trade stocks this amount but thought it looked interesting none the less.
It had just had the SBar off the bottom. Still nice move.
AAPL: How they lie. Looks to me AAPL is in distribution? Your opinions?
IMO AAPL is still in an uptrend and we are just seeing HH’s and HL’s right now.
KEN/AAPL: You may be correct. However, by my count, the TR just completed looks more like distribution. If I am correct, soon the price will slowly drop so as not to prompt panic selling. IMHO. I have no ownership interest, so my speculation is just that. Can’t wait to find out?
Here is my take on NOK.
Long term bias is accumulation.
Short term Distribution on Daily??
AR/NOK: IMHO too early to tell if accumulation or redistribution. Will price jump across the creek or continue in the TR that is the question?
thanks skoutasg!I think this is a very interesting chart. Difficult. Probably SOS might be waiting for us
AR: You know the Smart Money (the “Composite Man”) are magicians. They never lose money, we do. What looks like it’s going up is the reverse. What looks like it’s going down is also the reverse. Best to learn their tactics.
What is the platform that doyou use? Tradestation?
S9: TOS out of habit because been with them 10+-years. Tried TV but left the pro platform because most posts were about crypto currency, which is not my bag. Wyckoff is the only method to trade or to follow your investments. Same patterns repeat over and over. What’s not to like?
SPCE/FDP: SPCE has already broken out of an accumulation TR now in mark up. FDP now in accumulation trading range where she breaks remains the question? You’re looking to trade the swings?
SPCE in Markup as Skout has pointed out.
looking at the range marked #5 and #6 bars maybe see some type of consolidation here if it follows the same sort of swing pattern.
Long term bias Distribution IMO.
Not sure short term to tell the truth.
Distribution. What does everyone else see?
Bias Longer term Distribution
Bias Short Term Distribution
KEN/BWA: Here’s another look. This stock looks like it was in redistribution until 3-20 happened. The Smart Money absorbed those shares sold by the public, then proceeded to markup up the stock so to distribute the shares accumulated on 3-20. Thus, I’ve named the trading range redistribution to accumulation to accommodate the reversal. Of course, where the price goes from here is only in the minds of the SM. IMHO.
Skout: Like your take here and definitely looks that way. Will keep that UTAD on there until there is a confirmation. Personally not looking to trade this right but thought the chart was interesting.
I’m thinking accumulation at this point. Lets see what it does at resistance level.
BWA: Looks to me like a reaccumulation on the daily chart and an Accumulation on the weekly. IMHO.
Wyckoff Market Discussion 300th Episode on May 25, 2022!