[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[skoutasg]

RE: XLF

With interest rates rising, any wonder bank stocks are rising? IMHO.

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[Patrice]

It will feel very good for those collecting interest on all the crazy house buying of the last year, especially with increasing rates.

[skoutasg]

If those home buyers locked into a fixed rate, then nothing to worry about, unless you plan to sell and buy again soon. Except, higher rates mean lower valuations. Of course, if you don’t plan to sell soon, no worries. Hope you fit into one of the positive categories.

[Patrice]

I bought 16 months ago, back when we could still negotiate the price down a little, right before things went crazy. I locked it for 5 years. My neighbor just sold her much smaller house for 75k more than what I paid for mine. Prices inflated by a lot over the last year. I wouldn’t want to be buying right now.

[Patrice]

Hi everyone,

On their charts, Roman and Bruce often use a Relative Strength indicator. This is an indicator I often use but mine doesn’t have that moving average to it (I assume it’s a moving average). Can you tell me more about it? Is it a moving average of the price or the RS?

[skoutasg]

RE: HONEYWELL (HON)

IMHO. Here’s an interesting chart which includes RSMK (same as RS but w/some proprietary adjustments) and the correlation indicator. The latter indicator would confirm you selected the correct index or sector used in the RS comparison. Trade on!

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[skoutasg]

RE KO: HAS THE BELL RUNG? IMHO, DISTRIBUTION TRADING RANGE.

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[Patrice]

It starded from an uptrend. Bias is bullish. The price has hung to the high of the range for some time after the BC. I find that bullish too. The rally tothe ST is on decreasing volume and fails to reach the top ofthe range. It is then followed by a sharp decline on increased volume. That’s bearish to me. We didn’t see many test of the low but the 1st kind of hung there for a while before to rally up and the 2nd reached lower than the first. The current rally up is very nice though but with all that stuff I consider bearish inthe formation, I wouldn’t be super excited just yet.

To take with a grain of salt. I’m learning so I probably know nothing.

 

by the way, what is that indicator that deaw waves on your chart? Soke kind of Weis Wave indicator?

[skoutasg]

Thank you for your comments. To answer your question, I purchased the zig-zag indicator in question. Not touting its superiority. You can use the zig zag percent just as well. I like to use fib numbers for the absolute or percentage change. For example, the Dow Theory uses 3%, but other fib numbers such as 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and 34 have worked just as well for me. This beloved site is purely classical so does not use zig-zag, as the indicator did not exist when Wyckoff set forth his theory. The zig-zag helps me put structure into the price action. It works for me, but may not for others. Trade on.

[skoutasg]

RE: MSFT

What say you Patrice? Anyone else? Time to buy, sell or hold and why?

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[Patrice]

Sorry for the late reply.  When I read your post I could not figure weather I would go long or not at that point. My guess would have been to wait another bar and see how it behave after that break above resistance on friday. A test of that resistance would be a buy for me.

[Frantz Herr]

MSFT:  Buy Sell or Hold (by my trading plan rules)…  Currently in a TR, entered from an uptrend, so initial bias is bullish, to be confirmed or fail.  The break of support bar labeled as MSOW has no downside continuation, is the only daily commitment after the break, and quickly rallies back up through support.  Shakeout behavior but needs confirmation.  Confirmation comes after two testing bars, rally is now a spring and an entry signal by my rules (stop buy above the three day highs, SL after the market pulls me in below the lows of the wide spread entry/breakout bar).  Good volume on the breakout through resistance, but bar does not extend beyond 1/2 of the bar above resistance, so Supply is present, expect testing or reaction (move SL to slightly below 1/2 of the range of this BO bar).  The price target would be MSOS highs captured with trailed SL’s if the current upswing continues.  Nothing else to do for now.

This assumes no previous positions and intention is for a swing trade.

Thanks for posting Skout.

[Patrice]

Hi Frantz, I just want to say that I find your analysis of the situation most instructive. Thanks.

[Patrice]

If I got it right, thsi is distribution. The las bar brings some doubts but I guess thenext few days will tell.

 

 

 

[skoutasg]

Re: TRMLF – SHORT

IMHO, accurate analysis of where this stock is heading -down. My chart hints the start of an accumulation range for which we await developments. Happy trading.

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[Patrice]

Hi Skoutasg. So you see an accumulation and I see distribution. I’ll go back to studying that chat thats for sure :). What made me think distribution is the failed attempts to rally up after that all time high in early nov. volatility seem to be increasing too. Also there is that big bar down on dec 1st followed by what I considered a weak rally.
Anyway I’m very new to wyckoff so my analysis could be all wrong.

 

[Patrice]

Oh my, excuse my poor english, I realize I might have read you all wrong 🙂

[Patrice]

The chart here puzzle me. I cant decide where to place the BC. I kind of want to chose the first which would place us above the creek and now beck against it for the second time.

on the attached image I labeled SC instead of BC by error.

any thoughts or tips that could have helped me know for sure where the BC is on this chart?

Thank you

 

 

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[Frantz Herr]

Patrice, the structure could be distribution but there’s always the possibility that the late Nov/early Dec move is a shakeout.  The initial bias would be R-A to be confirmed or fail.  Do you see anything overtly bearish in the structure prior to the upthrust?  Interesting chart, thanks for sharing.

[Patrice]

You’re right, it could be accumulation and the Nov/Dec move could be a shakeout. I thought about it but found that came after the upthrust to be rather bearish and of increased volatility. As for your question, no, I do not see anything overly bearish before the upthrust.

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Patrice, I think it would make sense to look for the change of behavior and use that reversal point as the BC.

A low priced stock like this probably isn’t going to have significant institutional participation, so using the textbook Wyckoff approach may not work as well as with a more seasoned instrument.  Instead, you might consider an approach similar to what Roman and William described in their Tape Reading Lab review of AMC.  The idea is to watch for breakout or breakdown confirmations for your entries and exits.

Best,

Frantz

[Patrice]

Thank you for your reply. I must admit I wasn’t expecting 2 replies that quickly. You two are very generous of your time. I have to remember what Frantz said and look for the change of behavior when I have a hard time spotting a BC or SC. And its true that this stock may not have lots of institutional interest. Thats something else I must be careful about.

After reading your replies I went back to the chart and realized looking back enough was helping finding more about where we are here: in the late stage of a 5 year old accumulation.

[skoutasg]

RE: GENGF

Hola!  Thanks for posting. It’s been awhile since someone has posted. Keep them coming. The purpose of this blog is to learn, so no one should ever be shy about what they post. Your couragious. IMHO, this stock may have hit its buying climax or the start of a distribution trading range? Further tests are needed to verify this hypothesis. However, beware that the price jujitsu prior to the climax (also identified as a cup-n-handle or ABC correction) portends that the recent high is a buying climax (BC), IMHO, so expect the price to decline once the trading range is completed.

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[Patrice]

Hi and thx for your reply. I didn’t know how to replyto both of you together so I posted a reply above

[ArkadiyRezviy]

schw

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

schw p&f

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[skoutasg]

RE:  AAPL

Bloggers:  Here’s AAPL.  What do you say – a distribution AR or reaccumulation AR?

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[Curt Miller]

Does anyone do the Bias Game quizzes on Twitter?  I am 0-6 in the last 6 weeks.  I can always point out both elements of distribution and accumulation.  I just never know which to put more weight on.

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, have you looked at this week’s puzzle?  I have it as distribution, but Roman has been sneaky lately 😁  Frantz

[Curt Miller]

Just saw the answer…. 0 for 7

[Curt Miller]

I have it as distribution as well.  The large amount of volume near the middle of the chart (highs) and the price being rejected from these areas makes me think its distribution.  However, the far right of the chart looks like it could be a spring.

[Frantz Herr]

Here are three headers for new discussion topics

[skoutasg]

RE: VIX

I thought to post this chart for your commentary. The VIX has elements of accumulation and distribution but my efforts to map the data have shown mixed results. The wild swings of the VIX remind me of swings evidenced by Robin Hood stocks such as AMC and GME where we see the so-called short-squeeze used for effect. When do we know a quick short squeeze is in the offing? Well, fiddling around, I applied the RSI indicator and RS index (DOG being the proxy) to the VIX weekly chart which produced some interesting results. What are your thoughts?

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[Frantz Herr]

Skout: thanks for posting.  I track the VIX and the $DWCF ATR5 each week as part of my overall market condition update – both are volatility indicators.  I have found them to be coincident measures with little predictive value.  They have both been trending gradually lower since the Covid decline market lows of March 2020, confirming bull market conditions.

[ryanm1982]

im new Frantz, like to share some charts if thats ok

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Ryan, please do.  Do you want to post them in one thread or do you want me to set up some additional headers?  Frantz

[ryanm1982]

I can post them in one thanks Frantz been studying for about 2 years, I use short term options, and manage my own knvestments, and do really well with Wyckoff (I started with another system so a lot of my charts have indicators). Studied everything, I think I read every known credible Wyckoff resource, and follow Professor Frazer blog. Even got the original course. I’m in Scotland

 

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks for introducing yourself Ryan!  I’ll be looking at your charts this weekend…  Learning Wyckoff methodology can be a game changer!  Frantz

[ryanm1982]

Yes thank you Frantz. I was introduced to it, by a friend in another strategy site, he was a friend of M r Weiss.

[ryanm1982]

Any feedback, comments or criticism appreciated

[ryanm1982]

big view of cycle

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[skoutasg]

RE: DAL

COMMENTS: Ryan updated this chart, discovering an error in my wave count. Now looks like the price has entered an ABC correction phase (reaccumulation per se) not a distribution TR as previously opined. This summer is a killer with most campaigns on hold likely until Sept., IMHO.

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[Curt Miller]

Skout – “This summer is a killer with most campaigns”  You can say that again.  My gains for the year are starting to dwindle away.

[skoutasg]

Curt:  In the same boat must liquid 6-stocks on Monday. MM engineered this coming downturn masterly.

[ryanm1982]

delta airline

 

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[skoutasg]

RE: DAL

Ryan: Since my last post on 6/17, DAL has indeed entered what appears to be a distribution trading range. Leg D did not surpass Leg B which confirmed possible sideways movement. In the end, you were correct, just saying.

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[skoutasg]

Ryan: To me, distribution means a stock in a trading range (TR) which if the pattern is correct means the price will exit below the TR. My daily chart of DAL shows price having recently completed a MMU (measured move up). From here, DAL will either complete another measured move up of legs C, D, A, B or price could enter another trading range beginning at the prior leg B. In a MMU, distribution is good because the Smart Money is causing prices to rise as part of its campaign (it’s selling shares to the public). The campaign will stop at the BC or enter a reaccumulation phase (absorbing more shares) prior to resuming the advance. Just the way I view things, no criticism intended.

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[ryanm1982]

couple dist. also

 

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[skoutasg]

Ryan: Identical to my DAL analysis. Thank you for posting.

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   BA.png
   

[ryanm1982]

i have lots

this is WDC, didnt trade, marked as an exercise

i dont want to post too many

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[ryanm1982]

zoom communications accum

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[ryanm1982]

wba, made about 30%, kept going without me

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[skoutasg]

Ryan: Notice ABC correction. Not a reaccumulation TR but a reaccumulation nevertheless. Smart Money may intend to extend leg C (absorb more public selling) before restarting the uptrend?

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[ryanm1982]

bank of america, made about 30%, kept going without me

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[ryanm1982]

Shell midstream, didnt trade

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[ryanm1982]

xom accum, still hold

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[skoutasg]

Ryan: The beat goes on!

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[ryanm1982]

psxp, large accum base, i continue to hold

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[skoutasg]

Ryan: Hold a good idea! One of Buffet’s favorites.

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[ryanm1982]

my favourite at moment also,

thanks

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[ryanm1982]

this is UAL, reaccumulation.

volume and volatilty reduction

raising demand level possibly

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[Curt Miller]

Hi Ryan / Skout – Thank you guys for keeping this forum going.  I’ve been meaning to post.  Just to weigh in on UAL.  I think the bias is still accumulation with a down trending trading range.  After the ST the price had a SOW that reversed as a spring in Phase B.  The latest reaction down is muted with smaller bars and declining supply.  I would not be surprised if we saw another downward reaction to test the the supply of the April 20th bar.

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[skoutasg]

RE: UAL

Ryan: Regrettably, looks like distribution to me, IMHO. Only time will tell. Look for a break through the ice for confirmation.

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[ryanm1982]

point figure, the reaccum and accum targets almost match

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[ryanm1982]

drilling into 60min, it has a symmetry, and that supports decision making.

inverted hs, kind of.

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[ryanm1982]

the 60min really shows volatility reduction in the bars

[ryanm1982]

thanks Skoutasg

i had this one last week. JD, this is entry assessment

 

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[skoutasg]

RE: JD

Ryan: My daily chart also confirms an accumulation is taking place. My entry would likely await further development of the TR in anticipation of a breakout upward using the daily timeframe. You ‘re on a roll!

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[ryanm1982]

this was actual trade.

short term option

enter 2.6; exit 5.0

aprox 90% in a wk

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[ryanm1982]

Thank you Skoutasg, yes im.A full time options trader, I think JD goes quite a bit further. And I may follow.It and try and trade the upwaves. I had a short term target, but I was very happy with 90% in a week,.so closed it and relaxed with a bbq, at weekend instead of having live positions. Wyckoff and short term options are very effective if your willing to be quite active

 

[ryanm1982]

fcx distribution

short term option +60%

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[skoutasg]

Re: FCX

Ryanm: Good call. Also, FCS is an excellent exercise in measured moves (MM). Attached, if anyone has any comments.  IMHO.

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[ryanm1982]

Thanks Skoutasg. I’m not familiar with measured moves

 

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[Frantz Herr]

Accumulation or Distribution?

 

[ryanm1982]

Apple

30min accumulation base

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[skoutasg]

Ryanm: What do you see on daily and weekly charts? How does their status affect your proposed trade?

[ryanm1982]

im a short term option trader. here is my live trade, +70% still hold

 

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[Curt Miller]

Ryan – I’ve been thinking about starting to trade options.  Would you mind sharing how you select options and how it relates to Wyckoff entries?  How far in the future do you select expirations dates?  Do you use the greeks in your selection?

[ryanm1982]

the indicators (i know a true wyckoff expert doesnt use indicators); are atrade system, taught by an options expert, when i first came to options thats what i learnt. for a 30min i chose 1 strike out the money, 35 days. set my target. marked my chart, so its planned. if it goes to target (or close) in duration i profit.

 

[ryanm1982]

in Dr prudens book, he reccomends incoporating a recognisable reversal pattern, so that Apple chart is an inverted head and shoulers. the head and shoulders target and pf target are about the same

[ryanm1982]

Curt, that is Apple trade close

overthrow of trend line

+110% on short term option

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[Curt Miller]

Ryan – Looks like some absorption near the resistance line of the trading range.

[ryanm1982]

yes thats how i read it also, i have been learning Wyckoff, for about 2yrs

 

[ryanm1982]

Schlumberger options trade +60%

 

 

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[Curt Miller]

Frantz – I’ve zoomed in on the most recent price action.  To me it looks like a structure within a structure or possibly a TR in a BUA.  The recent TR showing some signs of volatility with the SOW then immediately shooting up to an UTA.  However, the volatility seems to be slowing and price is not reaching the bottom of the TR.  Is it working off some of that supply?  I am guessing Accumulation.  I don’t feel confident in my answer.  I have gotten Roman’s bias game wrong for the last three weeks.

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[Frantz Herr]

Thanks Curt, we are in agreement.  Here’s the weekly bar chart.  This is on my WL but I want to see more signs of absorption and good demand before buying.

The broad U.S. stock market appears to be dealing with hidden supply at resistance and feels heavy to me; so that could put the kibosh on my bullish ideas.

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[skoutasg]

Frantz: You need to reposition the New Thread to the top of the page, please. Skout

[Frantz Herr]

Done.  Roman has been talking about moving all the discussion forums to Discord.  He is so busy – it will happen when it happens…

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[skoutasg]

RE: GBTC (BITCOIN)

SRATEGY: LONG

Where does price go from here? IMHO, we are today looking at an ABC correction action nestled within another measured move up? The ABC pattern represents reabsorption or accumulation by the composite man. Notice the spike in volume at the reaction lows. Maybe a good place to enter whether you’re a swing trader or long-term investor? I’m long for the duration of the campaign. Where she stops, no one knows? IMHO.

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[Frantz Herr]

So far so good…

[skoutasg]

RE: /ZN (10-YEAR US TREAS FUTURES)

Where will in the yield go? Up or down? What are your thoughts? In any event, Wyckoffians will need to await developments before entering a trade.

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[skoutasg]

TO: FORUM USERS

RE: MCK

Today updated this previously discussed stock from Distribution to Measured Move Up (CDAB). The artistry of this MM is absolutely amazing. That’s why they are the masters of the universe. Target price equals $378.  IMHO.

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[Curt Miller]

Skout – I am currently holding a half position of MCK.  I sold half the day before ER to lock in profits.  This one is interesting to me because the price has been doing well considering the relative strength appears to be lagging.

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[skoutasg]

RE: MCK

Curt: If you’re still holding, you may look to exit during the reaction up which looks like an ST/UTAD, IMHO? Unfortunately, looks like headed down once she exits the current distribution AR. IMHO.

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[Curt Miller]

Skout- I appreciate your feedback and remembering my position.  As you can see by the chart I’m still holding half position.  It seems to still be meandering in the trading range with no movement either way.  What are you seeing that makes the range look like distribution?  Maybe I should just look for a retest of the resistance and just close out the position.  Its just taking up capital anyway.  I could put it to good use somewhere else.

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[skoutasg]

Curt:  “The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks”, Section 16M, Page 2.  Quote” (K) Determining whether a trading range represents Absorption (new demand) in preparation for a further advance; or Renewed Distribution (new supply) in preparation for a further decline. What you have to understand is all moves in the market represent manipulation by the Smart Money. Only the big boys can move the market, not the public.  Therefore, all up moves represent distribution and all down moves represent accumulation by the Smart Money. If you look closely at the TR, you will see the balance of power to date represents distribution. How can you tell? Look at the change in price at the end of each move. So far, we see distribution rules. Moreover, reaccumulation always has three waves which means for this TR to represent reaccumulation before the third (distribution) wave the balance of power would need to be accumulation which it is not. IMHO.

[Curt Miller]

SYNH – Despite the market sell off I had a stock on my watchlist trigger a buy.  I would welcome anyone’s thoughts on the trade.  The BUA showed a huge amount of supply that didnt go any lower.  I entered on the breakout above $84.  Would anyone categorize today’s volume as “climactic”?   I’m wondering if I should expect hesitation before price resumes higher or a reversal.

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[skoutasg]

Curt:

RE: SYNH

Looks to me this stock at its recent high completed wave B of a measured move up (CDAB). The campaign is likely to continue, IMHO. For what it’s worth, Yahoo Finance reports a 1st target price of $95.09. However, when the campaign ends, no one knows except the Smart Money. Good luck!

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

*

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[ArkadiyRezviy]

Hi gang, I got a little sick, but now I’m in the ranks.SYNH/IMHO

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[Frantz Herr]

Hi Arkadiy, glad you’re well and back with us!  Nice charts…  Frantz

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, the high volume bar from last week fully tests the breakout Sbar from last month suggesting additional testing to come.  The key local resistance to overcome is 87.50.  Note how Supply came in in the form of the Supply tail on today’s bar.  Overcoming and committing firmly above 87.50 would be confirmation of continuation higher imo.  I would protect under 77.75ish.  Thanks for posting.  Frantz

[Curt Miller]

Frantz – Thanks for commenting.  I agree a test is necessary but I thought the the price action yesterday would be a successful test (higher low on lower volume).  What do you look for with a successful test?

[Frantz Herr]

Curt, those two high volume bars last week have both S>>> And D>>> suggesting there is still S to absorb.  A successful test for me would be contained within the body of last month’s breakout Sbar, preferably the upper 1/2 imo.  It’s the market, so as always, anything can happen.  Frantz

[Frantz Herr]

New thread

[shhmi9]

Hey

this is polish index wig20. i think it is acumulation structure.

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[Curt Miller]

Shhmi9 –  I would agree.  Looks like it is exiting the trading range on rising demand.  I would be watching to see a backing up action.

[shhmi9]

hey

wig20 at present

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[skoutasg]

SUBJ: AAPL

RE: How even the mighty fall, eventually. Note how limit buy orders are filled by the MMs and how they bypass the sell stop orders to round out this Distribution trading range.

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[Frantz Herr]

Skout, the AAPL pattern, with minor variations, is typical of a broad swath of prior growth leadership.  Meanwhile, dead value has come to life.  Rotation.

[Frantz Herr]

27:50 to 34:15 of this week’s Tape Reading Lab discussion (Monday, May 3) Roman and William analyze AAPL’s structure on the daily chart for Supply and Demand imbalances.

[Curt Miller]

ALDX:  I almost posted this the other day but forgot.  Take a look at my entry and more importantly my exit.  Then look what happened a few days later.  I got scared out of a position because the supply was increasing on the way down that broke local support but not the trading range support.  Gonna wish I had this one back.

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[skoutasg]

Curt: I sympathize with your disappointment. However, I view the reaction high as a short-covering rally which will be short-lived (no pun intended). IMHO, we are looking at a distribution TR therefore look for price to decline.

[Curt Miller]

Frantz:  I watched your presentation with Teresa on the Best of Wyckoff Conference.   Very nice job!  Good info.  I found it interesting that Teresa recommended doing trade review immediately after closing the trade.  I have always waited a month or so after closing the trade because I want to see how the price action resolves itself after I close.  That way I can determine if my exit was too early or too late.

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Curt, thanks for the BOW feedback.  Doing post trade analysis is far better than not, regardless of the timing!  For me, it is better to do my pta while everything is fresh in my mind.  It has helped me improve my entries, SL placement and risk management tremendously; and if I need to tweak one of my rules I can do it right away.

[Author]

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