[Frantz Herr]

I have campaign ambitions for the precious metals miners.  This is one of my positions.  I am considering 3 possibilities in the context of this monthly chart: 1) upthrust and deep reaction back into TR, 2) more absorption around current resistance before continuation higher, or 3) MSOS rally to next zone of Supply before BUA.  Comments?

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

Nice chart, but I wonder how can we survive such huge down move on April? This kind of action should be strong enough to knock out all trader off their Long.

[skoutasg]

Frantz:  My reference is the interday chart which is attached.  Look for a rally into the $36.45 which is within the TR as you said.  Phase C of the Distribution Phase will then be complete.  Next is the Accumulation Phase (price moves downward) which completes the Distribution set-up followed by the markdown.  The Dow30 is likewise set up for Distribution.  So, if you play the rally to $36.45 + then you may want to take your profits.  IMHO

Attachments:

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   GDX.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks Skout.  The miners are highly correlated but my positions are GDXJ, GOEX, SIL and JNUG – I don’t own any GDX.  Here’s a quick analysis of the GDXJ daily chart since just before the March selloff.  What do you think?

 

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Humble, thanks!  A good chart to study for stop rules.  I’m a long time frame investor and this is a monthly chart, so for me – if my POE#1 was on that Sbar reversal bar out of the spring in |C|, my stop would be under the low of the |C| monthly cluster.  I would have to have a stop rule that is triggered on a monthly close for that one.  If I took POE#2 on the monthly Sbar after the successful test in June ‘19, I would have a rule to stop under that bar initially and trail it to the top of the range where it would have been triggered for a scratch or small gain, leaving me with POE#1 (March didn’t commit below and that stop doesn’t move until breakout from the range, up or down so still in by my rules).  No more entries because price never broke out of the TR to create a MSOS and BUA.  Then, after the shakeout bar in March, and recognizing that’s what it was, I would have reentered POE#2 on the April reversal bar.  I would have moved that stop up to the low of this month while hoping the rally off the March lows continues and creates a MSOS so I can add my POE#’s 3&4.  I’m a genius with the benefit of hindsight!  The reality is I am in my position much higher and did not honor stops – but no leverage and I GOT LUCKY.  At least I can be more disciplined if this now becomes MSOS rally and follow my scale out and reentry rules, and honor my stops this time if price reverses back down!  I have to keep reminding myself of two things: 1) Anything can happen and 2) a bull market will do whatever it can to have the fewest number of riders…  Hope you make a killing with your gold trades!  Frantz

[skoutasg]

To:   Frantz

RE: GDXJ

You pose an interesting question – will the measured move up continue or are we seeing a buying climax (BC) or a reaccumulation range developing?  Volume was up on the last leg before the high, which is an ominous sign.  For the measured move up to continue, price must take the previous high.  I’m in the camp that feels a market reversal is in the offing, so those starting new trades or staying in old ones should proceed with caution (IMHO).

[Frantz Herr]

Skout, thank you very much!  Your comments are great and they have prompted me to take a closer look at GDXJ’s daily chart which I post here with my updated comments.  I see a support area that would create a more bearish bias than I presently have if it gets violated; I also see a resistance area that I can use to confirm my current bullish bias.  This has really helped me think about how to manage my position, thanks again!

[Frantz Herr]

[HumbleTrader]

Thanks Frantz, I’m currently holding a long position of Gold when it breakout the short term down channel as shown in photo. My first try was stopped with small lost, then I think about a down channel. Many people could ask why didn’t I enter when price falsebreak the lower boundary of down channel, but I cannot find any valid setup to enter, so I wait until the rally end, then a test with low volume, then a breakout. You can easily see how volume decrease on that test before breakout. But as it my first entry, the size is quite small. I don’t expect it to GAP UP or vertically shooting to the moon next week.

[Frantz Herr]

I completely agree with your tactics Humble.  Entering on a successful test is one of my entry rules also.  I hope you can get some proper add ons with good entry points.  Maybe this is the rally that takes gold up and out.  Good luck!

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

Price just suddenly fall and hit my Break even stop with a surprise move of 200pips. Now the big swing from here to the lower boundary look very potential.

Such S-bar on huge volume is worth considering, what do you think?

[Frantz Herr]

Very high volume on this reaction, and it came at resistance cluster formed by BC.  However, has not been able to break the low of the last reaction to the downside (so far), which is clearly the intention; my conclusion – there must be demand present absorbing the supply.  Could lead to a more aggressive rally.  Price now attempting to reverse.  Wait for the test.

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

I’ve just win a quick swing after the breakdown, but a potential swing right at the previous low has took me out of this trade. Now I can see demand emerging and supply disminishing on the test of the spring rally. I think danger point entry will come in a day or two. Hope this spring will rock to the moon, it’s been 2 months of trading range

[Frantz Herr]

Good plan Humble; I admire your patient logical approach!

[HumbleTrader]

I’m running out off patience 😀

[AlejandroDT]

Greetings

I have seen this forum, and I share my analysis on the SP index in 15 minutes time.

From my point of view, we see how a change of character has been made (phase A), a substantial process in phase B, and for the moment a phase C where the greatest volume is concentrated in the high part of the offer.

Within this larger structure we identify, in green boxes, accumulation processes and in red boxes, distribution, and the grey box, a process that has not yet finished.

As an analysis, I could break it down much more.
From Spain (Canary Islands)

 

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[skoutasg]

Welcome from the contributor from the Canary Islands and thanks for your contribution.  So, in your mind, the overall structure so far represents accumulation or distribution in totality?

[AlejandroDT]

<span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Hola skoutasg </span></span>
<span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Estoy enviando el mismo análisis, y otro en cinco minutos, porque veo connotaciones de una posible distribución.</span></span>

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[Frantz Herr]

Welcome to the forums Alejandro, thanks for your posts (and hello again Skout)!  Here’s the same structure at the daily time frame.  It wouldn’t surprise me if price made another visit back to support of this developing TR as your 15 minute chart is suggesting.

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

It’s me again. Here is my new view of the GOLD Future

The last time I did not entry on the Spring in M30 mini TR, however, I still managed to get in after the first NR Candle in D1 TF, which I think is another Spring of the BUA in M30 TR. It turned out very good swing. I expected to hold on to this position as long as possible. However, it look like there is a Change of Behavior.

Although there is massive Demand on the Shakeout appear right at the previous absorption area (Blurry Orange Rectangle), the largest up volume yesterday and its lack of follow through right at key resistance level keep me in wonder if the CO was using market strength to unload there position? Therefore, I’m thinking about a test of the potential upthrust regarding new Trading Range (Green Dot Line). I’ve closed 2 position this morning and I’m thinking of 2 scenarios:

1. This is an Upthrust, price could retest resistance level around 1750 again on much lower volume and turn down. A low volume retest of resistance at 1750 (this current swing have huge volume) and a S-Bar that break below the previous absorption zone will be my confirmation.

2. This is just a retest of the vertical breakout recently, however, massive supply will require time to be absorbed. I expect low volume testing the previous absorption area and maybe 1-2 springs will pull the trigger.

What do you think?

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Humble, sometimes we lose sight of the forest for the trees.  What do I see on the monthly chart?  It certainly looks like an uptrend.  I would go so far as to label it a new bull market.  Markets are in TR’s most of the time, trends are a gift.  The course of least resistance appears to be up.  Not trading advice, but – I have a profit cushion in my pm miner etf’s so I’m an investor and just sitting.  All I can say is I would keep the monthly chart in mind as you make your decisions.  Good luck, I hope we all make a killing!   Frantz

[HumbleTrader]

Thanks Frantz,

That does remind me of Phase E. Seem like I need to find my way back to the Long position again 🙂

[Frantz Herr]

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

Although the two chart look different, I can still share with you the same point:

1. Even price re-test upper boundary of the New main Trading Range, there is no follow through after the break down. Also, the final down candle have largest range and big volume, this is potential a climax action.

2. Price still running up in an up channel, the recent big trend candle is one showing the lack of supply. However, price may need to prove itself with some test the up candle area.

That’s just what I’m waiting for before re-opening a Long position. However, if price break down again, I will thinking of a short position with potential target at the lower boundary of the New TR.

 

[Frantz Herr]

Nice chart Humble!  I am observing the depth of the reaction off the UT/UA.  So far it is holding above 50% of the range which is bullish.  Good luck with your trades!

[Curt Miller]

I’ve been following UNFI for a little while now and it looks like an accumulation pattern.  Attached is my interpretation of the chart.  Not sure if this is a downward sloping trading range or horizontal so I included both trend lines.  I am open to any different interpretations or thoughts on what a potential entry point may be.

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[skoutasg]

Attached are the weekly and intraday charts for UNFI per my trading platform.  To me, UNFI has entered a reaccumulation phase in the intraday: accumulation phase on the weekly chart.  If correct, then entry should await the exit from the trading range- long if the direction is up; short if the direction is down.  To me, your chart likely shows short coverings or preliminary support prior to the selling climax as shown on my weekly chart.

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[Curt Miller]

Thanks for your feedback.  I’m going to to keep a close eye on the 1 hour chart to see if there is a change of character.  It looks like you use TOS.  What are the numbers at the peaks/troughs of each of the swings?  Is that the volume of the swing?

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

It’s me again with my gold future trading.

Remember the last time I’ve showed my entry, trying to catch the Shakeout and I’ve been right about that.

My current situation is that I’ve exited when I see the present of the Bear in the re-test of the April high, the effort of the bull was reward with little. However, the pullback into trading range did not happen. And the last two days bring some clue about Supply absorption.

The overall context with the retest of the April high in higher volume but cannot make new high, not even touch the high does look like a shortening of thrust to me. But it also look like price is coiling into an apex.

My question is that:

– Should I wait for more clue before confirming this is absorption? Of course, if this is absorption, then these 2 narrow range candle bring excellent entry for new Long

Thanks 😉

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Humble!  Thanks for your post.  My chart is the 1 hour continuous GC, so the appearance is different.  My observations: the GC chart has what I see as a breakout that has already occurred and BUA is taking place.  Professor Roman teaches to observe how Supply is presented and absorbed both bar to bar, and also swing to swing.  He uses the term ‘texture’ to describe the Character of swings.  One thing I am noting about the second swing on the GC chart is that it is less steep and travels less distance (at least so far).  We see a large amount of Supply in the most recent bars.  What is the intention?  I would say to drive price back into the prior TR.  Not successful so far.  ‘Looks bearish, acts bullish?’  If price crashes through the prior Support, then something different from BUA may be occurring, but no evidence yet.  The BUA is a smaller TR.  David Weis likes to look for trades along the borders of TR’s.  Livermore said he got in as close to the point of danger as possible, and if the danger proved real, he would get out fast with a small loss.  Just my observations, “for education purposes only”…

Thanks again for your post; great job with your last trade, please let the forum know how this one develops!

[HumbleTrader]

Thanks Frantz,

Yes Frantz, I have the same Point of view with you on your the GC chart. However, when I take a look at my GC1 chart, things look differently with more bearish signal. Here mine

I have not acted base on what’s happening on the chart. The event where you label spring is also spring in my opinion. I did expect there would be a breakout upward so I can open a long position. But it suddenly fail yesterday with the weak news (Really don’t understand how a weak economy is a good news to the sentiment). But that’s not my problem. Now a potential UTA has appear to be more likely to me. And it’s a stop buy to me. Let’s wait and see.

Thanks you again 🙂

[vickijay]

Hello moderator, can you guys create a telegram account, it’s relatively easier to discuss there and post charts….just a suggestion

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks for the suggestion.  Please explain what you mean by a telegram account.  For now we are still trying to work the bugs out of this format.

[Frantz Herr]

Humble, here’s my take after today’s trading.  Let’s see how much Supply comes out on the retest.  Have a nice weekend!

[HumbleTrader]

It does look like we’re back to the same view again with this new move. But there is some ChOBe as you can see price going down quite easier than going up. My safe bet is to wait for more clue.

Let’s see what come next 🙂

[Frantz Herr]

Thinking about what might happen next, I expect a retest of the low of the current downswing.  Quite a bit of Supply was presented on those two big down bars near the lows.  As you point out, it was bullish that price did not follow through to the downside, but we need a test to see if Supply is still available.  The move off the low is better than prior rallies in the current downswing.  So my bullish scenario would be for price to pierce $1720 to the upside and stay above it before a test of the low of the swing, and the test occurring on lower volume.  My bearish scenario would be for Supply to reemerge around the current level and reverse price back down without overcoming and/or committing above $1720.  I would expect the test of the swing low to fail in that circumstance.  Either way, we need to wait for the test.  Let’s see what happens, have a great Wyckoffian week!

[HumbleTrader]

It’s midnight here in my country, however, I can see more bearish signal appear until now in M30,H4 and D1. In M30, price cannot hold it momentum, the shortening of thrust and the lack of demand add to the breakdown of the uptrend line as you mentioned, and price cannot commit above 1720. After the breakdown, price did attempt to rally up again on quite strong volume, but it’s the new supply emerging that erase 3 up candle by just 1 down candle.
Uptil now, I don’t see much buying. I may establish my short position when price close below the previous low of M30 and wait for a breakdown of the lower boundary of this current BUA trading range.

However, if a minor spring come around the new low, then I think I need to wait for more clue downward.

[Frantz Herr]

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

My data is delayed, but that’s not problem. Here my new chart

Current situation saying that selling is still persistent on top of the mini trading range. However, there is lack of downward follow through. This is confusing. I think today is not the day.

My bullish scenario is that with heavy selling on top of the mini trading range, price will still keep raising supports higher, then a breakout of the resistance zone will trigger my new Long

However, if tomorrow morning when I wake up, and we have new low. Then I will bet for the UTA on the D1 chart shown few days ago.

Have a nice trading day

I go to bed for now, enough confusing, LOL

[HumbleTrader]

Hi guys

I’ve just opened my new Long position with gold as I think this í the danger point of a spring.

My SL is just 10 pip below the long pinbar as this is clearly too little reward for the seller with twice effort more than previous bar. Plus, the position of the close is quite favor the buy.

However, this is danger point, if price cannot manage to lift off from this danger point, then my position will be closed either automatically by stoploss, or I’ll close its tomorrow morning manually.

Have a nice session.

[Frantz Herr]

Gutsy move not to wait for confirmation, but the cost to find out if you are right is cheap…

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[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

That’s how impatience pay, LOL

So, D1 has wider range, increasing volume, close near the bottom, below 2 previous lows, under the upper line of the big Trading Range.

Now D1 look really bearish, M30 and H4 also bearish. I think another breakdown below 1680 will be a confirmation. What do you think?

[Frantz Herr]

What I see:

D1 consistent Supply across BUA, but is it elevated?  Has it been able to commit price below support?  What does the texture of the D1 bars across the BUA range suggest about volatility?

M30 What is the nature of the most recent downswing – capitulation? stopping action?

H4  How does E vs R compare on the two downswings that are accompanied by the elevated volume?  What is the intention of the last downswing?

I agree, the charts have a bearish look to them.  Could be for real.  Could be “looks bearish, acts bullish”.  D1 in an apex/hinge.  Patience

[Drag0nflai]

Hi Frantz, I agree that patience is indeed the key here. I compared the triangle consolidation pattern in the distribution TR in Aug & Sep 2011 where the market topped with current TR that is unfolding, there are noticeable differences e.g. the spread of bull vs bear bars, supply & demand volume signature etc. Thursday’s bull bar lifting price up strongly from slope support tilts the probability of the breakout to the upside. I also have a long position open. I will stop out the trade if Thursday’s daily bar is retraced in the next few trading days with a daily bar closing below the low. Any thoughts?

I watched the recent Trade Anatomy vid #33 – Gold. This series is absolutely gold! Thanks for sharing your trades with us. I have been going back to watch each vid learning all the lessons shared with great interest. I took a screenshot of Nick’s annotated chart around 5-6 mins into the Vid but the resolution is no good. I can’t tell what’s written on the chart. Franz, could you please share the chart here?

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks for your post Dragon!  Glad you are learning from AoT, our goal is to help everybody (including me) get better!

The rule I use for INITIAL stops is what Roman teaches – place it below the most recent Wyckoff event.  Not advice, just sharing how I do it (educational purposes only)…

I made a PDF of Nick’s gold chart, hopefully you can magnify it so you can read it (thanks Nick great chart!!!).  Here it is:

 

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[Drag0nflai]

Thanks so much for the chart, Frantz. Could you please tell me more about what Roman teaches with regard to initial stop placement? In the example of the Gold chart, what is the most recent Wyckoff event? I usually place my SL based on a combination of factors, e.g. most recent significant daily candle high/low, a confluence of slope support/resistance + last swing high/low, taking into consideration the daily or 4 hour Average True Range (ATR). I’d love to learn more about how to improve and would appreciate it if you could point me to any articles, videos on the topic of where to place stop.

[Frantz Herr]

Dragon, my apologies for the delayed answer.  A Wyckoff event is, for example a spring, an LPS, reversal bar in BUA reaction, breakout from BUA – for a long entry.  Stop placement is below the event.  The movement methodology/rule is to move the stop under each reaction low once two reactions have occurred, keeping one reaction low between price and stop as price commits higher.  There is also a variation using Sbars, but same idea, maintain stop at second point of separation.  This method works well in a trend, in a TR more discretion is required.  If you are interested in learning more, Roman goes into this in detail in Wyckoff Trading Course I and II.  Thanks for your posts!

[HumbleTrader]

In D1

Persistent supply cannot break through main support level. However, resistances also lowering. As you can see, there were 2 potential springs that failed to produce meaningful up-move. This remind me of absorption of Seller:
– Lowering resistance
– Failed Spring occur many times
– Still holding at main support level for a period of time.
This absorption will be confirmed with a breakdown below the main support level.

In M30, however, I can see stopping action last night, but the up-move after the stopping action look like price is just floating up. There is no strong demand emerge after the stopping. This is not what I look for in a springboard.
Let’s see if this apex can confirm itself absorption or the CO just remain silent during these period of time.

 

[HumbleTrader]

Hi guys,

I’m speechless…

[[email protected]]

Hey All!

Happy to be in this community. What stocks are you looking at for trades to enter into? I personally like the airlines industry, but curious as to what everyone else is looking at.

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Donnell!  Check out the Communal Wyckoff Watch List (CWWL) in the public chartlist section of Stockcharts.com…

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Forum users, thanks for the great posts!  A couple housekeeping guidelines to keep posts and threads organized and easy to follow for others:  1) If you are starting a new thread, please go to the very top of the front page and on the right side of the grey ribbon above the very first post, click  ‘New Post’.  This will move your post to the top of the pile when you submit it.  2) If you are replying to an existing post or thread of posts, please go to the exact post you are replying to and on the right side of the grey ribbon at the top of that post click ‘Reply’.  Your reply will then appear below the post in the thread that you are replying to, whether it be the original post in the thread, or someone else’s post in the thread that you want to comment on.  This will keep the idea structure organized and easy to follow.  Thanks again everyone for your contributions to the Forums!

[skoutasg]

Frantz:  Could you please post a screen shot because I cannot find the “New Post” above the grey ribbon?

[Frantz Herr]

[lhomchick]

I wonder if “NEW POST” is in a different location for you because you’re a moderator? I have to go down to the original post on the last page to find the “NEW POST” link.

[skoutasg]

Frantz/Ihomchick:  No luck for me, including the last page.  Frantz, hope you’re working on it?

[Frantz Herr]

Yes, Wyckoff Analytics is aware

[lhomchick]

Amazon and Netflix showed possible climactic action at the end of the week. I’m interpreting this as evidence of a possible short term top forming in the market due to the current leadership of these two stocks  (similar to leaders such as NVDA prior to 2/19 market top). This is possible evidence of CO selling into public excitement.

This follows prior tops on increased volume on 4/9 in weaker sectors ETFs (XLB, XLI, XLF, XLE), as well as IWM(Russell). These have all failed to exceed the 4/9 high as the SP500 and NASDAQ have moved higher last week.

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[Frantz Herr]

Here is my journal entry about this week’s overall (stock) market condition.  I use Tradervue for journaling

Weekly market condition:

S&P and Dow remain below their declining 200 dma’s. NASDAQ is above and 200 dma is rising. (4 week roc). All three indices closed lower on the week. A non-confirmation exists, watch…

Sentiment remains Neutral to contrary Bullish.

Chaikin Money Flows last week were positive but decelerating both weekly and monthly.

All three trade entry signals remain green. 3rd week.

Wyckoff S/D: daily Demand weakening and Supply present, no trend; weekly Trend up but lower close and tight range on increased Supply in zone of prior support, rally acting tired; monthly commitment above zone of horizontal support, but unable to recover demand line of uptrend so far – heavy volume and so far unable to commit above last month’s wide spread/high volume bar. Stay alert

Watching NASDAQ for signs of possible developing bearish breadth Nonconfirmation. Minor bearish divergence so far.

ROC momentum declined for all three time frames. 21-day still OB

Relative performance: Dow lower and below declining MA; S&P lower but above rising MA; NASDAQ up and above rising MA; Russell up but sharply below declining MA

After the rally from the March 23 low, the market is losing momentum. Watch for signs of consolidation and Cause building for further rally; or increase of Supply and reaction.

NASDAQ continuing as leadership for now.

[orangemonkey]

does it work for comparisons too?

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[orangemonkey]

this could also be a great Count (cannot draw on this picture)

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[Frantz Herr]

Where would you make your segment 1 count?  I see the down column last November as my count line.  I count back to the low of the ‘wall’ in September 2018.  That count produces 13 columns x 3 box reversal x $1 box size.  39 + 28 = 67, 39 + 36 = 75 for an initial conservative price target.  For a possible confirming count, count from the March 2020 down column across to the up column wall in February.  10 x 3 x 1 = 30.  30 + 33 = 63, 30 + 45 = 75.  That would be a conservative target I believe.  If price gets there, I will stop, look and listen as there are clearly larger counts available.

[orangemonkey]

Hi Frantz, yes this looks good and fits in my target zone of 72. In the long term one could probably take the cup and handle approach, but this will take much time . regards

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[Frantz Herr]

👍

[skoutasg]

Frantz:  Asking that new posts and their respective comments be listed separately, as the current format is confusing  whereby new posts and former commentary is intermingled (IMHO)?

[Craig]

Frantz,

I call this submittal my “Quacks Like a Duck” submittal …

Could this be for real?

Cheers,

Craig

 

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[Frantz Herr]

Craig, Roman just did an Anatomy of the Trade on one of my short sales.  Some good teaching points, you can check it out if you like:  https://youtu.be/h5lDbxg-b5g   With a dividend paying stock the short seller pays the dividend as I’m sure you’re aware.   What is the Effort vs Result of the most recent swing?  “for education purposes only”…

[Craig]

Frantz,

Thank You for your sage advice feedback!  From observing yours & Romans “Anatomy-of-a-Trade #31” I truly see that I violated Rule #1, must not enter a short during an uptrend!  I also see that yesterday’s Effort did not Result in a breakthrough in Support (E>,R<) indicating that demand is present (Bullish).  Since I have not previously been a Short Seller, I was not aware that “we” also have to pay the dividends (6.89%) when shorting a stock.  Mental Patience has been a real challenge for me.  Many thanks again for your guidance.  This old dog may yet learn at thing or two!

Cheers,  Craig

[Frantz Herr]

Craig, I know what you mean – the mental side of the game is the biggest challenge I face.  Roman is going to tackle this aspect in May with his 3 week Trust the Process II class.  I would strongly consider signing up for it if you haven’t already; I have.

[skoutasg]

/ym:  Distribution or Reaccumulation?  # 2 Spring would identify the structure as reaccumulation?

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[bobstrout1964]

This is an Oil Tanker Company.

Have I drawn this correctly?

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[Frantz Herr]

Here’s a weekly view with a few observations:

[perdurecapital]

To illustrate my point, here is the accumulation range in 2013 in FRO leading up to the Contango event of 2014.  Again, the range of visibility of the sector is very small.  But a storage event like Contango raises rates to absurd levels if only briefly (This event may be of much longer duration as the demand destruction caused by COVID19 is unprecedented).  However it will not last forever.  This sector is not for the casual trader or the novice, or armchair expert.

It is my personal experience that the Wyckoff Method excels at exploiting these cyclical sectors because that’s what it was designed to do.  Wyckoff lived during times of booms and busts/panics, business cycles in Steel, transportation, mining etc.  Don’t want to step on toes here but I believe that there are very important lessons to be learned here and that just bringing up a chart and slapping some labels on it is not useful.  Context, Context, Context.

[Frantz Herr]

The forums need the participation of experienced traders like yourself.  Thank you for sharing and good luck with your trades.

[perdurecapital]

Using a Weekly chart to evaluate a high volatility and cyclical sector like tankers is in my opinion just wrong.  For one thing, trying to extrapolate what the composite operator is doing in the sector doesn’t fit due to the fact that large operators (pension funds, insurance cos, Large hedge funds, Mutual funds etc.) are nearly absent in the sector.  Why?  Because it is volatile and there is nearly zero visibility into the future earnings of these companies past a quarter or two.  Your weekly chart shows multiple boom and bust cycles, that on smaller timeframes are all fractal Wyckoff Accumulations and Distributions.  The operators within the tanker stocks are Hedge Funds, Market Makers, Specialists, Prop Traders/Firms, Professional Daytraders, and Retail traders.  The characteristics and footprints that they leave are not the same as a long term composite operator.  The tape reflects the actions of those who operate heavily in the stocks.  This is what creates those upthrust patterns that repeat over and over again.  Morning drive higher, the Specialists and pros sell/sell short shake out retail who bought the opening high, reaccumulate during the day, test supply, then run into the afternoon or gap up the next morning.  One Size Wyckoff doesn’t fit all.

[bobstrout1964]

WOW.

Your analysis is like seeing the Milky Way for the first time.

I can see I have so much more to learn.

[Craig]

All,

Sure does look like Distribution to me! Please see my plots.  I read that there is a big problem with Tankers full of crude oil anchored offshore with nowhere to go.  Too much oil and prices at at all time lows.  Companies are going bankrupt and can no longer pay the tanker company “storage/shipping” rates.  Be wary!

 

Attachments:

1. 

   200420_FRO_Analysis_Wyckf_Tweeted_Analytics.pdf
   

[perdurecapital]

Frantz by using Channels I believe you miss the Phase C spring which you have labeled as a ST in Dec 2018.  Also as the market made a lower low, FRO showed strong relative strength in Dec 2018.  If taken from this context, volume decreases across the ACCUMULATION range, into spring, then test and Strong volume on the upside.  From there the increase in volume I view as a SOS.

[Frantz Herr]

Great discussion, thank you everybody!  I don’t have a dog in the (FRO) hunt, just practicing my chart reading and trying to improve.  In the daily time frame, today’s bar was of major interest imo!   Daily volume was the highest ever for the stock!  How do we evaluate volume spikes, and what conclusions can we draw from them?  What was the intention of today’s bar?  At the very least, it was an attempt to commit above the March 30 highs.  Was it successful?  No, it could not commit above at the close, leaving open the potential that an upthrust is developing.  There was a higher close, Demand was dominant, but substantial, increasing Supply was also present.  Effort was the highest ever, but what about the Result?  Not so much.  The verdict, in my opinion, is that significant Supply remains.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days.  GLTA and thanks for sharing!

[perdurecapital]

I disagree, and market disagrees with you effort/result analysis.

 

[Frantz Herr]

Love the discussion!

[perdurecapital]

Looking at the sector as a whole and the recent price action over the last 30 days.  I see no signs of distribution whatsoever.  Second there is now a potential springboard forming, after strong demand forced prices above the Sign of Strength.  I would consider adding to positions as this breaks upwards or on a throwback test into the 85 level.  Full disclosure, I am long DSSI, STNG, NAT, TNK, DHT, EURN, TNP, and have been since the spring.  Best of Luck.

Attachments:

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   2020-04-22-TOS_CHARTS.png
   

[perdurecapital]

To follow up….

added to my positions in NAT, TNP, STNG, DHT following the spring in the index and based upon relative strength and my exposure across various names in the sector.  LR2 tanker rates at 148K/day bodes well for clean product tanker owners.  These are unprecedented and the equities are responding.

[lhomchick]

The heavy demand continued in after hours trading creating a commitment above the March 30 highs. Similar action occurred in NAT (another tanker, posted in this forum 3/28). I’ve attached a 15 min chart for a short term look at the local structure starting 4/2, which acts as a BU/absorption of supply after the MSOS noted on the 30 min chart from the previous post.

Attachments:

1. 

   NAT15min.png
   

[skoutasg]

My guess is the high uptick in volume signifies an upthrust within a distribution phase which began following the buying climax (BC) at $12.25 +/-?

[Frantz Herr]

A very long term look at the precious metal miners

[skoutasg]

My vote: we are in the accumulation phase.  See my monthly chart.  Note public selling on the dips whereby stock is being transferred from weak hands to strong hands.  Price will move up when the composite man has accumulated enough inventory with which to the start his/her markup campaign.

Attachments:

1. 

   GDX.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

DJ US Total Stock Market Index daily bars…

[Author]

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