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DISCUSS YOUR CHARTS, ANALYSIS AND TRADING
Be an active member of Wyckoff Nation! Post your chart analysis – past, present or future trades; or post about trading setups or process in general. Discuss Wyckoff related questions with your peers. Make a post and engage with your fellow Wyckoffians!!
Bloggers: Here’s AAPL. What do you say – a distribution AR or reaccumulation AR?
Does anyone do the Bias Game quizzes on Twitter? I am 0-6 in the last 6 weeks. I can always point out both elements of distribution and accumulation. I just never know which to put more weight on.
Curt, have you looked at this week’s puzzle? I have it as distribution, but Roman has been sneaky lately 😁 Frantz
Just saw the answer…. 0 for 7
I have it as distribution as well. The large amount of volume near the middle of the chart (highs) and the price being rejected from these areas makes me think its distribution. However, the far right of the chart looks like it could be a spring.
Here are three headers for new discussion topics
I thought to post this chart for your commentary. The VIX has elements of accumulation and distribution but my efforts to map the data have shown mixed results. The wild swings of the VIX remind me of swings evidenced by Robin Hood stocks such as AMC and GME where we see the so-called short-squeeze used for effect. When do we know a quick short squeeze is in the offing? Well, fiddling around, I applied the RSI indicator and RS index (DOG being the proxy) to the VIX weekly chart which produced some interesting results. What are your thoughts?
Skout: thanks for posting. I track the VIX and the $DWCF ATR5 each week as part of my overall market condition update – both are volatility indicators. I have found them to be coincident measures with little predictive value. They have both been trending gradually lower since the Covid decline market lows of March 2020, confirming bull market conditions.
im new Frantz, like to share some charts if thats ok
Hi Ryan, please do. Do you want to post them in one thread or do you want me to set up some additional headers? Frantz
I can post them in one thanks Frantz been studying for about 2 years, I use short term options, and manage my own knvestments, and do really well with Wyckoff (I started with another system so a lot of my charts have indicators). Studied everything, I think I read every known credible Wyckoff resource, and follow Professor Frazer blog. Even got the original course. I’m in Scotland
Thanks for introducing yourself Ryan! I’ll be looking at your charts this weekend… Learning Wyckoff methodology can be a game changer! Frantz
Yes thank you Frantz. I was introduced to it, by a friend in another strategy site, he was a friend of M r Weiss.
Any feedback, comments or criticism appreciated
big view of cycle
COMMENTS: Ryan updated this chart, discovering an error in my wave count. Now looks like the price has entered an ABC correction phase (reaccumulation per se) not a distribution TR as previously opined. This summer is a killer with most campaigns on hold likely until Sept., IMHO.
Skout – “This summer is a killer with most campaigns” You can say that again. My gains for the year are starting to dwindle away.
Curt: In the same boat must liquid 6-stocks on Monday. MM engineered this coming downturn masterly.
Ryan: Since my last post on 6/17, DAL has indeed entered what appears to be a distribution trading range. Leg D did not surpass Leg B which confirmed possible sideways movement. In the end, you were correct, just saying.
Ryan: To me, distribution means a stock in a trading range (TR) which if the pattern is correct means the price will exit below the TR. My daily chart of DAL shows price having recently completed a MMU (measured move up). From here, DAL will either complete another measured move up of legs C, D, A, B or price could enter another trading range beginning at the prior leg B. In a MMU, distribution is good because the Smart Money is causing prices to rise as part of its campaign (it’s selling shares to the public). The campaign will stop at the BC or enter a reaccumulation phase (absorbing more shares) prior to resuming the advance. Just the way I view things, no criticism intended.
couple dist. also
Ryan: Identical to my DAL analysis. Thank you for posting.
i have lots
this is WDC, didnt trade, marked as an exercise
i dont want to post too many
zoom communications accum
wba, made about 30%, kept going without me
Ryan: Notice ABC correction. Not a reaccumulation TR but a reaccumulation nevertheless. Smart Money may intend to extend leg C (absorb more public selling) before restarting the uptrend?
bank of america, made about 30%, kept going without me
Shell midstream, didnt trade
xom accum, still hold
Ryan: The beat goes on!
psxp, large accum base, i continue to hold
Ryan: Hold a good idea! One of Buffet’s favorites.
my favourite at moment also,
this is UAL, reaccumulation.
volume and volatilty reduction
raising demand level possibly
Hi Ryan / Skout – Thank you guys for keeping this forum going. I’ve been meaning to post. Just to weigh in on UAL. I think the bias is still accumulation with a down trending trading range. After the ST the price had a SOW that reversed as a spring in Phase B. The latest reaction down is muted with smaller bars and declining supply. I would not be surprised if we saw another downward reaction to test the the supply of the April 20th bar.
Ryan: Regrettably, looks like distribution to me, IMHO. Only time will tell. Look for a break through the ice for confirmation.
point figure, the reaccum and accum targets almost match
drilling into 60min, it has a symmetry, and that supports decision making.
inverted hs, kind of.
the 60min really shows volatility reduction in the bars
i had this one last week. JD, this is entry assessment
Ryan: My daily chart also confirms an accumulation is taking place. My entry would likely await further development of the TR in anticipation of a breakout upward using the daily timeframe. You ‘re on a roll!
this was actual trade.
short term option
enter 2.6; exit 5.0
aprox 90% in a wk
Thank you Skoutasg, yes im.A full time options trader, I think JD goes quite a bit further. And I may follow.It and try and trade the upwaves. I had a short term target, but I was very happy with 90% in a week,.so closed it and relaxed with a bbq, at weekend instead of having live positions. Wyckoff and short term options are very effective if your willing to be quite active
short term option +60%
Ryanm: Good call. Also, FCS is an excellent exercise in measured moves (MM). Attached, if anyone has any comments. IMHO.
Thanks Skoutasg. I’m not familiar with measured moves
Accumulation or Distribution?
30min accumulation base
Ryanm: What do you see on daily and weekly charts? How does their status affect your proposed trade?
im a short term option trader. here is my live trade, +70% still hold
Ryan – I’ve been thinking about starting to trade options. Would you mind sharing how you select options and how it relates to Wyckoff entries? How far in the future do you select expirations dates? Do you use the greeks in your selection?
the indicators (i know a true wyckoff expert doesnt use indicators); are atrade system, taught by an options expert, when i first came to options thats what i learnt. for a 30min i chose 1 strike out the money, 35 days. set my target. marked my chart, so its planned. if it goes to target (or close) in duration i profit.
in Dr prudens book, he reccomends incoporating a recognisable reversal pattern, so that Apple chart is an inverted head and shoulers. the head and shoulders target and pf target are about the same
Curt, that is Apple trade close
overthrow of trend line
+110% on short term option
Ryan – Looks like some absorption near the resistance line of the trading range.
yes thats how i read it also, i have been learning Wyckoff, for about 2yrs
Schlumberger options trade +60%
Frantz – I’ve zoomed in on the most recent price action. To me it looks like a structure within a structure or possibly a TR in a BUA. The recent TR showing some signs of volatility with the SOW then immediately shooting up to an UTA. However, the volatility seems to be slowing and price is not reaching the bottom of the TR. Is it working off some of that supply? I am guessing Accumulation. I don’t feel confident in my answer. I have gotten Roman’s bias game wrong for the last three weeks.
Thanks Curt, we are in agreement. Here’s the weekly bar chart. This is on my WL but I want to see more signs of absorption and good demand before buying.
The broad U.S. stock market appears to be dealing with hidden supply at resistance and feels heavy to me; so that could put the kibosh on my bullish ideas.
Frantz: You need to reposition the New Thread to the top of the page, please. Skout
Done. Roman has been talking about moving all the discussion forums to Discord. He is so busy – it will happen when it happens…
RE: GBTC (BITCOIN)
Where does price go from here? IMHO, we are today looking at an ABC correction action nestled within another measured move up? The ABC pattern represents reabsorption or accumulation by the composite man. Notice the spike in volume at the reaction lows. Maybe a good place to enter whether you’re a swing trader or long-term investor? I’m long for the duration of the campaign. Where she stops, no one knows? IMHO.
So far so good…
RE: /ZN (10-YEAR US TREAS FUTURES)
Where will in the yield go? Up or down? What are your thoughts? In any event, Wyckoffians will need to await developments before entering a trade.
TO: FORUM USERS
Today updated this previously discussed stock from Distribution to Measured Move Up (CDAB). The artistry of this MM is absolutely amazing. That’s why they are the masters of the universe. Target price equals $378. IMHO.
Skout – I am currently holding a half position of MCK. I sold half the day before ER to lock in profits. This one is interesting to me because the price has been doing well considering the relative strength appears to be lagging.
Curt: If you’re still holding, you may look to exit during the reaction up which looks like an ST/UTAD, IMHO? Unfortunately, looks like headed down once she exits the current distribution AR. IMHO.
Skout- I appreciate your feedback and remembering my position. As you can see by the chart I’m still holding half position. It seems to still be meandering in the trading range with no movement either way. What are you seeing that makes the range look like distribution? Maybe I should just look for a retest of the resistance and just close out the position. Its just taking up capital anyway. I could put it to good use somewhere else.
Curt: “The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks”, Section 16M, Page 2. Quote” (K) Determining whether a trading range represents Absorption (new demand) in preparation for a further advance; or Renewed Distribution (new supply) in preparation for a further decline. What you have to understand is all moves in the market represent manipulation by the Smart Money. Only the big boys can move the market, not the public. Therefore, all up moves represent distribution and all down moves represent accumulation by the Smart Money. If you look closely at the TR, you will see the balance of power to date represents distribution. How can you tell? Look at the change in price at the end of each move. So far, we see distribution rules. Moreover, reaccumulation always has three waves which means for this TR to represent reaccumulation before the third (distribution) wave the balance of power would need to be accumulation which it is not. IMHO.
SYNH – Despite the market sell off I had a stock on my watchlist trigger a buy. I would welcome anyone’s thoughts on the trade. The BUA showed a huge amount of supply that didnt go any lower. I entered on the breakout above $84. Would anyone categorize today’s volume as “climactic”? I’m wondering if I should expect hesitation before price resumes higher or a reversal.
Looks to me this stock at its recent high completed wave B of a measured move up (CDAB). The campaign is likely to continue, IMHO. For what it’s worth, Yahoo Finance reports a 1st target price of $95.09. However, when the campaign ends, no one knows except the Smart Money. Good luck!
Hi gang, I got a little sick, but now I’m in the ranks.SYNH/IMHO
Hi Arkadiy, glad you’re well and back with us! Nice charts… Frantz
Curt, the high volume bar from last week fully tests the breakout Sbar from last month suggesting additional testing to come. The key local resistance to overcome is 87.50. Note how Supply came in in the form of the Supply tail on today’s bar. Overcoming and committing firmly above 87.50 would be confirmation of continuation higher imo. I would protect under 77.75ish. Thanks for posting. Frantz
Frantz – Thanks for commenting. I agree a test is necessary but I thought the the price action yesterday would be a successful test (higher low on lower volume). What do you look for with a successful test?
Curt, those two high volume bars last week have both S>>> And D>>> suggesting there is still S to absorb. A successful test for me would be contained within the body of last month’s breakout Sbar, preferably the upper 1/2 imo. It’s the market, so as always, anything can happen. Frantz
this is polish index wig20. i think it is acumulation structure.
RE: How even the mighty fall, eventually. Note how limit buy orders are filled by the MMs and how they bypass the sell stop orders to round out this Distribution trading range.
Skout, the AAPL pattern, with minor variations, is typical of a broad swath of prior growth leadership. Meanwhile, dead value has come to life. Rotation.
27:50 to 34:15 of this week’s Tape Reading Lab discussion (Monday, May 3) Roman and William analyze AAPL’s structure on the daily chart for Supply and Demand imbalances.
ALDX: I almost posted this the other day but forgot. Take a look at my entry and more importantly my exit. Then look what happened a few days later. I got scared out of a position because the supply was increasing on the way down that broke local support but not the trading range support. Gonna wish I had this one back.
Curt: I sympathize with your disappointment. However, I view the reaction high as a short-covering rally which will be short-lived (no pun intended). IMHO, we are looking at a distribution TR therefore look for price to decline.
Frantz: I watched your presentation with Teresa on the Best of Wyckoff Conference. Very nice job! Good info. I found it interesting that Teresa recommended doing trade review immediately after closing the trade. I have always waited a month or so after closing the trade because I want to see how the price action resolves itself after I close. That way I can determine if my exit was too early or too late.
Hi Curt, thanks for the BOW feedback. Doing post trade analysis is far better than not, regardless of the timing! For me, it is better to do my pta while everything is fresh in my mind. It has helped me improve my entries, SL placement and risk management tremendously; and if I need to tweak one of my rules I can do it right away.
Who says we can’t use Wyckoff for day trading? Picture perfect!
Nice! Were you able to capitalize on the trade? If so where were your entries/exits?
Curt: Thank you for commenting. To answer your question, I don’t trade intraday because you can’t outsmart the Smart Money. I have long holdings so monitor the Dow Average looking for that turning point we all know is coming. Looks like for now the powers that be are content with manipulating price down from the high to a low where they book profits, then raise the price again, then repeat. I think SM will repeat this process until they can dispose of all their holdings of value related stocks, which have lagged the bull market. Once, the disposal of these stocks has met their inventory objectives, then the big short will occur. IMHO.
Friends, your thoughts on the daily chart of the Dow Futures (YM)? Distribution or Reaccumulation? How far down it will go, only the Smart Money knows.
RE: /YM 5-day chart
My friends, it looks like the bull market continues for now? Your thoughts?
To: Forum Users
Friends owned this stock since 1/17/20. So far, nice profit, but unfortunately good things eventually end. Or do they? Is DOW under distribution? Seems so as confirmed by my daily and weekly charts. IMHO. Doesn’t seem possible. If so, the Market has undervalued this blue chip per dividend yield theory, but why? Maybe it’s proof that the Smart Money is preparing the Market for the correction that may come soon? Your thoughts on Dow and the Market?
Hello, newbie here. Was active a while back but had to postpone my studies in Wyckoff due to some personal issues. Thought I see a couple of RA TR emerging (including the latest one in Dec-20) but not much hints of Distribution. While I do see volume increasing since Mar-21, emergence of supply may suggest either a TR for absorption of supply or a reaction if supply is not absorbed? And in the last 1 year, we are at least seeing HLs/HHs and also RS relative to SPX and sector shows uptrending signs. So not sure about the bearish interpretation of the chart. Happy to hear the bearish side. Thank you
Skout, watch Bruce Fraser’s Power Charting this week (it’s on YouTube) at 13:00 for a DJIA discussion…
Skout, Oops, your post was Dow Chemical, not the DJIA… my bad
To: Form Users
Friends, it looks like we have a UTAD forming in the UNH trading range established after its most recent high, a precursor to a markdown. Although it’s early, the XLV etf looks like it will confirm the markdown hypothesis. Your thoughts?
To: Forum Users
I submit the 4-day chart of the Dow 30 in 1-minute format. Take heart my friends because it looks as though the DOW is not yet ready for the cellar. Expect the markup to begin next week. Based on recent history, a long accumulation trading range is not expected. Looks like this pattern has been repeating over and over of late as the Composite Man rejects the penetration of the Dow 30 dividend yield of 2%. Your thoughts? Happy trading. IMHO.
Skout – Thanks for sharing. There was a large amount of supply that came in at the end of the day Friday and I think we need to see the result of this supply. It has pushed the price down but it hasn’t reached the bottom of the TR.. yet. If it does breakout of the TR there is still some more supply at the 32,850 level that needs to be overcome. Like with most Wyckoff analysis it’s a “wait and see” point in time.
I’m looking at using options to my Wyckoff analysis. Can anyone provide any guidance on how to add them into my trading? I have a good understanding of how options work but I’m not quite sure the best way to apply them to Wyckoff trading. When a stock hits a trigger entry point should I just buy the option at the market price or should I be doing limit only orders? Any help would be appreciated.
That is a good question. I actually need to brush up on options again as have not used them in a very long time.
In one of the trade analysis videos Roman, and I think it was Frantz, Roman talked about that he used options to trade the underlying stock. I wondered how he did it as well and his analysis of the options. Did he buy calls or sell puts, etc…
Bias Game #86 Accumulation or Distribution?
Trade With (Not Against) Large Institutions.