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DISCUSS YOUR CHARTS, ANALYSIS AND TRADING
Be an active member of Wyckoff Nation! Post your chart analysis – past, present or future trades; or post about trading setups or process in general. Discuss Wyckoff related questions with your peers. Make a post and engage with your fellow Wyckoffians!!
Friends, your thoughts on the daily chart of the Dow Futures (YM)? Distribution or Reaccumulation? How far down it will go, only the Smart Money knows.
RE: /YM 5-day chart
My friends, it looks like the bull market continues for now? Your thoughts?
To: Forum Users
Friends owned this stock since 1/17/20. So far, nice profit, but unfortunately good things eventually end. Or do they? Is DOW under distribution? Seems so as confirmed by my daily and weekly charts. IMHO. Doesn’t seem possible. If so, the Market has undervalued this blue chip per dividend yield theory, but why? Maybe it’s proof that the Smart Money is preparing the Market for the correction that may come soon? Your thoughts on Dow and the Market?
Hello, newbie here. Was active a while back but had to postpone my studies in Wyckoff due to some personal issues. Thought I see a couple of RA TR emerging (including the latest one in Dec-20) but not much hints of Distribution. While I do see volume increasing since Mar-21, emergence of supply may suggest either a TR for absorption of supply or a reaction if supply is not absorbed? And in the last 1 year, we are at least seeing HLs/HHs and also RS relative to SPX and sector shows uptrending signs. So not sure about the bearish interpretation of the chart. Happy to hear the bearish side. Thank you
Skout, watch Bruce Fraser’s Power Charting this week (it’s on YouTube) at 13:00 for a DJIA discussion…
Skout, Oops, your post was Dow Chemical, not the DJIA… my bad
To: Form Users
Friends, it looks like we have a UTAD forming in the UNH trading range established after its most recent high, a precursor to a markdown. Although it’s early, the XLV etf looks like it will confirm the markdown hypothesis. Your thoughts?
To: Forum Users
I submit the 4-day chart of the Dow 30 in 1-minute format. Take heart my friends because it looks as though the DOW is not yet ready for the cellar. Expect the markup to begin next week. Based on recent history, a long accumulation trading range is not expected. Looks like this pattern has been repeating over and over of late as the Composite Man rejects the penetration of the Dow 30 dividend yield of 2%. Your thoughts? Happy trading. IMHO.
Skout – Thanks for sharing. There was a large amount of supply that came in at the end of the day Friday and I think we need to see the result of this supply. It has pushed the price down but it hasn’t reached the bottom of the TR.. yet. If it does breakout of the TR there is still some more supply at the 32,850 level that needs to be overcome. Like with most Wyckoff analysis it’s a “wait and see” point in time.
I’m looking at using options to my Wyckoff analysis. Can anyone provide any guidance on how to add them into my trading? I have a good understanding of how options work but I’m not quite sure the best way to apply them to Wyckoff trading. When a stock hits a trigger entry point should I just buy the option at the market price or should I be doing limit only orders? Any help would be appreciated.
That is a good question. I actually need to brush up on options again as have not used them in a very long time.
In one of the trade analysis videos Roman, and I think it was Frantz, Roman talked about that he used options to trade the underlying stock. I wondered how he did it as well and his analysis of the options. Did he buy calls or sell puts, etc…
Bias Game #86 Accumulation or Distribution?
I have been holding a position in several precious metals mining ETF’s since 2019. I have had them hedged with JDST for nearly a year. I am not seeing much to be bullish about in the current situation. Considering unwinding the whole thing.
Share your concern, the trading range looks like redistribution? IMHO.
My ‘catatrophic level’ stops were hit on 2 of my 3 PM etf’s yesterday. Now I get to find out if my SL placement was correct. Also closedpart of my hedge position, but I’m net short at the moment.
Frantz: so you got stopped out at your danger level! Nothing wrong with that. All of us have been in situations where you just hate to get out of a trade, but its always best to just follow your plan and not start “designing” all kinds of “hedges” and other excuses to stay in making potential losses even greater. I have a sign posted to remind me of this: “Amityville Horror: Get out! Get out! Get out!” 🙂
Peter: Absolutely, there was no emotion involved in the decision. I sold the remainder of my PM ETF holdings today, along with most of the remaining hedge; kept a little of the hedge as a bearish speculation. I got a chuckle from your Amityville sign, it’s an effective reminder I’m sure!
I apologize in advance, I try to understand how it works, I am not a trader, (I execute 2.3 trades per week in EU markets), and perhaps I will never become one I understand my limits, I have a static job and a lot of passion and curiosity. trader is a phrase too underrated by many people.Thank you
Hi Erba, passion and curiosity provides the energy that keeps us striving to expand our understanding; and expand it will with effort and practice. Go with it! Frantz
Bias Game #85 – Accumulation or Distribution?
To: Forum Contributors
Re: PNC and XLF
Thought to solicit your comments to start off the weekend? Do we have a potential distribution trading range forming or a continuation of the trend? Sold at the high but may want to get back in should a reaccumulation range form forthwith.
Skout, the big picture looks bullish to me. I agree with your decision to scale back into this MSOS, but I think I would want to keep a core position and look for opportunities to build back size in whatever BUA might come next. Looks like a good cause and I don’t see signs of terminal distribution by the CO. Frantz
Skout: I’m currently in AMP which is part of XLF and the chart looks very similar. You can see my marked up chart. I thought action on Thursday this week was the end of a Phase A of a trading range so I closed 1/3 position. Friday the price just took off but I noticed the volume looked climactic so we will have to see what the result is. If there is a reaction I would look to enter near the $195 area.
Curt: Your thoughts on PNC? The AR reaction from the BC looked odd to me compared to the price action during the markup. Also, the potential upthrust scared me. Finally, look at the similarity of the price action in PNC and XLF. The reaction from the ST/UT would need to be huge for this the developing TR to be a reaccumulation. As usual, we must await the development of the TR. IMHO.
The AR looks like a change of behavior to me and I would be on the lookout for a ST. Agree that we need to await the development of the TR. I wouldn’t be opening any new positions at this time.
Bias Game #84
CMA: Picture perfect.
What would your bias be here?
IMHO it looks like a possible re-distribution ??? Unless it breaks through the upper area with some gusto.
Now maybe a TR here would be nice but too early to call an accumulation in my opinion.
Kenneth: I’m long here with a target price of $72 forming the BC of a reaccumulation trading range, IMHO. CMA is a vastly undervalued blue chip in the financial services sector (XLF) so much out of favor with individual traders but not the Composite Man. Thus, price will rise slowly. But I am monitoring the XLF as it has recently reached a BC with its trading range yet unresolved – either reaccumulation or distribution based on the consensus of the Composite Men. IMHO.
Got it. Up! Up! Up! then!!!!!
LAZR – Reaccumulation
Daily – Re-accumulation
I agree with your analysis Kenneth. Once it breaks out of the small trading range I would expect another reaction near the $48 mark. There was a very large amount of supply at that level.
BTBT Breakout / Swing play
Weekly – trending HH’s / HL’s
D – re-accumulation
Arkadiy: Here’s one in the Food Products industry that I have been following. UNFI looks like it could be breakout out of a BUA trading range. I agree with Skout though the XLP is looking weak and is my only reservation on taking a position.
Bias Game #83
Accumulation or Distribution?
Bias Game 83 Distribution IMO
I see the chart in two different regions. Downtrend and then an uptrend that is the accumulation. If anything it was a lot of time spent and should prove as an amusing pic of chicken scratch ;-P
And another one incorrect 🙁
This one is a challenge. The overnight sessions cloud the water, and the downswing on the last day does not satisfy the intent of sellers to push price lower. However, the TR originates from a downtrend, and Supply off the top of the selling climax downswing is not being overcome. So I am going to hold my nose and vote for this as Re-Distribution.
friends, what is your opinion?coty
friends, thank you all for your help
Arkadiy, here’s how Coty’s industry group is doing if this is any help:
Here is my take on COTY. Interesting one
Quick vol analysis attempt here as well. If anybody has a different opinion of vol please let me know.
Arkadiy re COTY: Daily and Wkly looking good, but look at the XLP which is the consumer staple (XLP). IMHO looks like it may be in distribution?
Apologies in advance but would like to present another view of accumulation
Kenneth: Sure hope that you are correct since I have about 5 bank stocks in my portfolio. Hate to see their wonderful recovery now go down in flames. Best
Whoops, a bank reference, not, since we are talking about XLP”s.
Will take a look at XLP. Thanks for the tip
Gang: No disrespect to the bias game, but for real the sectors that follow are under distribution – XLC, XLI, XLK and XLP. Commentary, if you please?
TYME has been a rollercoster since I last updated.
FB: Let’s play the bias game with FB. Accumulation or distribution, and why?
Agree with Arkad with short term distribution
Would say needs confirmation as it is looking a little undecided on which way it wants to go to be honest.
Views on CNFR?
Weekly is starting markup?
CHoB and CHoCH
This is another that did not show much negative price reaction from the March Madness dips
Ken: Agree with your assessment. IMHO, confirmed by the daily chart as well. Buckle up for a wild ride.
Long term Monthly has been distribution with it looking like it is forming a multi-year accumulation base.
Intermediate Weekly bias is accumulation.
What I like is the near non existant march madness dip that is everywhere.
Bars: March madness bars have very little effect with subsequent lows as it only scores a HL. This suggests that strong hands are involved here.
KEN RE CLRO: You nailed it. IMHO, await earnings report on 3/30 for further evaluation.
CVS: Yes, this much maligned blue chip may be poised to exit its accumulation trading range (TR). Will Smart Money await earnings on 2/16 before it commits to the campaign? IMHO.
Base Game # EBAY )
Arkadiy: Undecided on EBAY. Price just came out of a reaccumulation range on the daily chart. The weekly chart evidences a buying climax (BC) which TR will turn out as another reaccumulation or distribution. Therefore, I’m out for now. IMHO.
stoutasg,the question is what do we have – re-accumulation or distribution. I am confused by E / R.If you have an effort expressed the result should be in proportion to the effort. If a stock has been moving up every day with a two point spread every day with ten thousand shares and it breaks into the high ground with twenty thousand shares and a half point spread for a couple of days straight we know supply is coming in and is overcoming the demand. This is an effort that is not having an proportionate result, therefore the stock is likely to be in trouble and have a reversal in its movement.Time will put everything in its place
Arkadiy: Good observation. I’m a long-term investor, not trader, so my bias is always on the weekly chart. IMHO, all trading ranges are manipulations initiated by the Smart Money. The Wyckoff method is a study of these manipulations, IMHO. I am a Wyckoff believer, but I am not wedded to classic Wyckoff. Imagine if today’s chart tools were available to Mr. Wyckoff? At the end of the TR, price can only move up if the Smart Money is accumulating; down if the Smart Money is distributing. Therefore, what is the TR telling us about the “Composite Man’s” intentions should be our focus? My 2-cents.
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