[lhomchick]

[perdurecapital]

I have been campaigning this peer of NAT since Dec 2018.  The reaccumulation off the throwback has been very strong with higher highs/lows showing strength and absorption at higher levels.  Best of Luck.

Attachments:

1. 

   2020-03-31-TOS_CHARTS-1.png
   

[lhomchick]

Awesome, thanks for the input!

[perdurecapital]

I’ve been using an equal weight index of US listed Dirty and Clean Tankers as my proxy for the tanker markets.

Attachments:

1. 

   2020-03-31-TOS_CHARTS.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Nice work, thanks for posting!

[skoutasg]

lhomchick:  Thank you for your reply and explanation.  Keep on trucking!

[skoutasg]

Attached is a 30 minutes chart.  Noted is at least 2-waves of redistribution by the COs’.  Looks like a third wave is in process as the top range looks similar to distribution, a characteristic of another redistribution in process.?  Would be nice to know the author’s target price based on either Wyckoffian logic or some other method?

Attachments:

1. 

   NAT.png
   

[lhomchick]

I was interpreting the short term action as a MSOS, with a possible BU into 3.20-3.70 area. I suppose the redistribution scenario could fit with the BU reaction scenario.

I did a couple P&F counts, one with a target of $6.60, which makes sense as a prior level of support turned to resistance during the downtrend. If I enter a position I would be monitoring the price action at previous points of supply from the prior downtrend.

I’m always interested in feedback on my thought process.

 

Attachments:

1. 

   NAT2.png
   

2. 

   NATPF.png
   

[perdurecapital]

I also get confirming counts to 6.40 – 6.60 area for NAT.  The overall picture for the sector is quite good.  Suezmax rates hit 90k today, very good for NAT.

[eranajo]

looks great

thanks for sharing

Eran

[Frantz Herr]

I like your analysis.  One caveat, note the tendency of price to retest (so far) the wide spread up bars across the range.  Risk management of paramount importance as always…

 

[lhomchick]

Any feedback on this annotated chart, and how it can be interpreted in the context of the market?

[skoutasg]

$DJI:  This morning’s snapshot may show a UT, a reversal in the offing?  A redistribution prior to further move down?

 

Attachments:

1. 

   DJI.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks for posting!  It makes sense to use AAPL as a market proxy

[Frantz Herr]

[Frantz Herr]

[Craig]

Frantz,

Thank you for your incite!  I would be inclined to say this is a Phase |C| UT to be followed by a dropback into a Phase |D| Trading Range?

Market is very strange today  … have you looked at Stockcharts Industry Summary?  Winning sectors just don’t seem logical.  Could we be seeing some kind of artificial boosting of the market?

BTW, I wish to thank you for your “Lessons from Trading (Mistakes) Blog.  They are well documented examples that even I can follow and hopefully understand.

Cheers,

Craig Moore

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks Craig.  What if I add trend lines? 

[Craig]

Frantz,

 

Thank you for your quick response.  Your Trend lines seriously make the Climactic high an anomalous  overthrow event.  I still  lack confidence to step in and short the apparent secondary high, but I would certainly agree that a drop back is expected.  These are truly exciting & challenging times at present!  I think I am currently in the stop, look & listen mode.  Hopefully the market will not go off and leave me in the dust. 🙂

 

Cheers,

 

Craig

[HumbleTrader]

Hi Frantz,

Your chart was incredible. I don’t trade the GC1! – Comex as I’m living in Viet Nam. I’m trading XAUUSD by OANDA and there is huge different between the 2 charts

Here’s mine

As you can see, I don’t have that climatic over throw to 1700, instead, due to the lack of liquidity, price can only make it to 1640 and now running into a Trading Range as show in my chart. I’m planning to hold on to my position here and wait for more SOW before decide to close these for new position. What do you think?

[Frantz Herr]

Hi HT!  Nice chart, different in some respects, but the break of the uptrend line that you have labeled as a ChoBe is a commonality.  I like your analysis and I agree with your TR conclusion in this time frame.  Phase |B| can be tricky as you know!  Your entries look good; what was your intention when you entered the trade?  Let that be your compass…

[HumbleTrader]

It took me a while to go into a conclusion that Gold under going a selling climax. So after a Climax, there should be an auto rally. I’m not trying to catch the bottom, instead, I’m waiting for a HL and HH. As you can see in the chart, a strong rally labeled UTA – minor SOS with long spread and rising volume signature that result in quite a lot of candle close above the Trading Range. Then price going down very struggle, also the volume decreasing when price go near the lower band.

I has closed these two positions as price touch the upper band and going down yesterday. It does look like we will soon have a reversal at the end of the Auto Rally.

[Frantz Herr]

[Frantz Herr]

[Frantz Herr]

Just finished my weekly market conditions review.  Spring is here, so I was looking for some green shoots.  I actually found a few!

1)  This one is just an indication of how oversold things are right now:

The S&P 500 closed Friday 24.2% BELOW its 200dma; the Dow Industrials were 29.2% BELOW; the NASDAQ comp was 18.2% BELOW.  Extreme…

 

[Frantz Herr]

2) Sentiment is incredibly bearish:

The 10dma of the US Equity put/call ratio closed Friday at .982 (highest in recorded history of this indicator!); the CNN Fear and Greed Index ended the week at 8 (four straight weeks at the level of Extreme Fear); the BofA Bull-Bear Indicator was .4 this week (below 2 is a a Buy signal).  Lots of people on the same side of the boat.

[Frantz Herr]

3) For the first time since late December, NASDAQ composite market internals had a positive divergence from price:

The COMP had a new daily closing low, while its Bullish Percentage Indicator had a higher low and failed to confirm:

[Frantz Herr]

4) Small stocks have been the market’s door mat since mid 2018.  One week doesn’t change a trend, but they showed some signs of life on a relative basis last week:

 

[Frantz Herr]

One final observation just based on personal experience working as a financial advisor and living through 1987 (black Monday), 1989 (S&L crisis), 1991 (Iraq war), 2000 (tech wreck), and 2008 (global financial crisis), and a few others.  There is always a reason to believe the causal event is going to end the world as we know it, and that seems to again be the case at present – but bad times don’t last (good times aren’t permanent either); so I’m staying optimistic and reminding myself of Sir John Templeton’s remark that the four most dangerous words in investing are “this time it’s different.”

[Frantz Herr]

Watching small cap stocks for signs of reversal in deteriorating RS as a green shoot.  S&P 500 currently strongest versus Dow Jones US Total Stock Market index, followed by NASDAQ.

[eranajo]

thanks Frantz

looks interesting

 

[Frantz Herr]

[larry aldrich]

MDLZ Analysis:  This currently shows what is known as a High Pole Top in p/f lingo..this could easily form into a retrenchment down to the low 40’s and should be monitored with caution. Should reversal occur to 61, it would be a speculative long candidate.

Attachments:

1. 

   mdlzre.jpg
   

[eranajo]

look nice, will see if it will handle the drops of the market and will keep the reaccumulation form

[skoutasg]

My rendition on a weekly chart.  Good move up after reaccumulation.  Sell off halting all future advances.

Attachments:

1. 

   MDLZ.png
   

[eranajo]

thanks Frantz for posting my chart i hope it will solve soon

even the massive down move of today market

it looks like it still inside the Daily Accumulation Range

 

Attachments:

1. 

   MDLZ-DAILY-9.3.20.jpg
   

[Alessio Rutigliano]

I love this chart, Frantz!

[eranajo]

thanks Alessio

[Frantz Herr]

It’s eranajo’s chart; he was having trouble posting it so I did it for him.  Credit where credit is due!

[aBuzz]

Here’s my weekend work on SPY. Last week the COs stabilized market with a productive day Friday pushing back into previous TR and turning resistance into support. Any break of that support would likely bring the 2016 demand line into play. If we are not over run with covid-19 news, the market may have a productive week.

Comments welcome.

Attachments:

1. 

   SPY-2020.03.08.pdf
   

[HumbleTrader]

Hi, I’m being confused with the entry on phase |E| – when everything seem to confirm phase |E|. Please kindly look at my chart below

 

My question is:

– If I’m going to entry with the Breakout Candle, then where should I place my Stoploss?

– What should we do when there is less volume when price breakout the upper channel when there was emerging demand right on the lower channel? We can call in less supply, but sometime less supply lead to a false breakout.

Thanks

[rotageht]

– What should we do when there is less volume when price breakout the upper channel when there was emerging demand right on the lower channel? We can call in less supply, but sometime less supply lead to a false breakout.
If I am interpreting the question correctly, you are asking what to do when price breaks resistance in a horizontal parallel channel on less volume than the volume that lifted price off support in a horizontal parallel channel. When this happens, you can use Volume Spread Analysis to help determine if it is a false breakout. Then look for the confirmation of what the VSA is telling you at the higher price level. This is just what I do. I am sure there are other ways to view breakouts of channels that others can share.
I was just watching a WTC video from the course I took and it was explained that when price travels in the up trending manner on a decreasing volume signature, supply is locked up.
Best of luck building your system!

[HumbleTrader]

Thanks, I’ll try that in the next try.

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks for posting!   The purpose of this forum is to encourage discussion. Here are a few thoughts that I have; maybe others will comment as well

What is occurring in the higher time frames?  In my experience a one hour chart can help with trade entry if the bias, timing and character is confirmed by the bigger picture.

Just relying on what is revealed by this chart, the price behavior after the reversal S-bar late in the day on the 28th looks like local absorption.  In my opinion, if I had entered on the bar you are asking about, I would have put my initial stop around 1301 and would have already trailed it to just below the low of the second to last bar on the chart.  Not investment advice.

The amount of Demand increased on the last three bars and it was enough to allow price to commit higher.  Local Supply appears to have been absorbed.  Effort and Result are in synch for now in this time frame.

Perhaps you would consider submitting your trade (after it is completed) to Roman to discuss in ‘Anatomy of a Trade’?  Thanks again for posting!

[HumbleTrader]

Thanks for your reply, this is one of my confusing time when I paper trading to build my system. The hardest time come to me when I see volume decrease gradually like the chart above but price still keep going higher.

I thought that if volume is decreasing, then the up/down move should end very soon. But in most case, it just don’t go that way. In the chart above, I realise the bullish feather like activity, but why the breakout volume is low when the recent S-bar that lead to these movement is in high volume (High volume also mean emerging supply), where are those seller? And do we really need a high volume breakout? Or it just need to be relatively high compare to a few candles before?

 

Thanks

[Peter Kenny]

Crypto Carnage! Eventful day to put it mildly.

It has been difficult to identify correct Distribution ( or, is it Re-Accumulation?) structure for BTC in part because of the preceding Price Action.

I think I have it now but would appreciate anyone chipping in. Interestingly the PnF count is accurate.

Why didn’t I see this sooner   Arrggghh!

 

Peter

Attachments:

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   gkIoeLJK.png
   

[Frantz Herr]

Peter, great to see you on here!  You might also try this same post on the ‘Crypto and Wyckoff’ topic threads in the forums, maybe our resident crypto moderator Alessio has some thoughts?  Worth a try…  Frantz

[Peter Kenny]

Will do!

[插口]

Long-term bias and short-term bias？

[Peter Kenny]

eeehhhhh. How do I post a question here? Am I being stupid?

[Peter Kenny]

Got it!!!! Right at the end on Page 2 “New Post”

[插口]

Yes，sir，wonderful！

[Author]

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