[Dimitri Deychak]

Let’s start a game – it’s called “This stock is being [Accumulated/Distributed] — Change my Mind!”

I’ll start — This stock (GRA) is being distributed, change my mind!

Feels like a good bias game!

 

[Frantz Herr]

[rdwyckoff]

Weekly market update. Still uptrend. Institutions are buying one each reaction and absorbing supply very quickly. A true change of character reaction (read Automatic Reaction) will most likely be fast (5-7 trading days) and more pronounced (7-10%). That will finally lead for a pause. R

 

[Dimitri Deychak]

If you guys had an open position, would you close it out or see if supply that came in on the recent bar gets absorbed? Does the rally need to rest or s it just getting started?

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[rotageht]

It would depend on where you entered the position. If you entered early and and are sitting on a good profit, you could close a portion of the position and lock in a profit with a SL for the remaining position also being profitable. Good luck on the trade and thanks sharing!!

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Roman, I’ve been studying the chapter on Absorption in David Weis’s book “Trades About to Happen” in preparation for the homework you gave us.  I came across this quote:

Absorption does not always take the form of lateral movement. There are occasions when prices simply levitate higher. In these instances, prices climb the proverbial “wall of worry,” lock out would-be buyers waiting for a correction, and feed on anyone daring to go short. I think of the Greek phalanx marching in step across the Plain of Troy. Volatility usually stays low until a high-volume wide-range price bar temporarily stops the move.  

It seems to describe the way the market has been moving since October pretty well; and relates nicely to your lectures about trends!  (Hope David doesn’t object to me lifting a short quote from his book)

[rdwyckoff]

Great quote by great Wyckoffian describing extended uptrend move with vertical absorption.

[rdwyckoff]

Someone was asking about schematics. Here they are. Roman

 

[Frantz Herr]

How do others keep tabs on the behavior of the overall market?  I have a spreadsheet I update every weekend that looks at what the market is currently doing from various perspectives – Monthly price swings, Moving averages, Sentiment, Money flows, Indicators, Visualization, Breadth, Momentum and Comparative Index performance.  The only flies in the ointment this week are a breadth non-confirmation and the Put/Call sentiment.

Posting this made me think I might want to add some cross-market performance indicators to the Comparative Index performance page of the spreadsheet.  Does anyone else have some cross-market indicators (stocks versus bonds etc) they keep tabs of?

 

[Frantz Herr]

I’m posting a stock trade I just entered to see if we can get some discussion going on the forums. The stock is GPRK. It’s in the oil patch. My annotated charts for the trade follow. My rationale is to participate in a potential developing uptrend in oil prices as a longer term campaign.  My initial R is 4+. Feel free to comment!  This is for discussion and education purposes ONLY and is NOT a recommendation; please refer to the disclaimer on the Forum main page.

[Frantz Herr]

[rotageht]

Here is what I see on the daily. Thanks for posting!

[rdwyckoff]

[rotageht]

Thank you for the feedback on the chart.

[Frantz Herr]

I really like the way you did your analysis Rotageht!  I am trying to train my eye to see all the same nuances you point out.  I think the regression line through the TR is upward sloping, so that’s one thing we differ on…  Thanks for posting

[Frantz Herr]

[Frantz Herr]

[aBuzz]

Hey Frantz — I did a P&F for GPRK use ATR(14), 3-box reversal that autoscaled to $0.74 box-size. Those parameters produced a confirming count of $49 to $59 — just a confirming analysis. Good Work. I don’t really invest in this sector, but oil sector has really been beaten down. Seems like a good campaign idea.

[Frantz Herr]

Thanks for the feedback Buzz.  The virus may derail the global economic recovery – the maritime shipping stocks are getting hammered and may be the canary in the coal mine.  This trade in an oil stock may get torpedoed as well.  I like the GPRK chart action but keeping it on a short leash with my stop for now.

[aBuzz]

Without admitting to my bias, the #37 is either easy or I’m missing something.

[Frantz Herr]

Here’s my analysis. If it’s wrong it doesn’t bother me. It’s just a reflection of my level of analytical skill at the moment. Actually, I would rather be wrong, I learn more from my mistakes and have something to work on correcting 🙂  (Just a guess, but from the time frame in months this looks like February 2003, at the end of the 2000 – 2003 bear market…)

[Frantz Herr]

The alternate bearish conclusion of Distribution would consider the inability of Demand to move price aggressively higher to a conclusive SOS after three attempts. It would observe that while Supply has diminished, Demand has also. There has as yet been no successful challenge by price of the selling zone between $40 and $42. Supply is a more important consideration than Demand in a base, but Demand needs to do its job eventually. Not really the case here as yet…

[aBuzz]

Franz — our interpretation and markings agree!

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[Frantz Herr]

Buzz, let’s see if we recognized it correctly when the solution is announced…

[Frantz Herr]

 

[Frantz Herr]

This is an indicator of the market’s condition that Bruce Fraser has shared in WMD…

[Frantz Herr]

This is what I am seeing on the chart of Bias game #36

[aBuzz]

Posted on twitter also.  The last two bars seem critical.  Next to last bar is a supply spike, but last bar price support holds above previous low (if re-accumulation Phase C).  My argument would be trend channel remains in tact — we should be alert for possible distribution.

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[Frantz Herr]

The answer key was just posted on Twitter. The lesson in this one is the quality of Demand in the second TR. This was a challenging one to analyze! Every time I go through a Bias game I can tell my analytical skills get a little better. It’s a great way to learn – and fun at the same time!

[Frantz Herr]

The interpretation of Bias game #36 that would lead to a Bullish conclusion is that all the Selling effort that is being expended in the final reaction on the chart is unable to create a lower price commitment.  Looks Bearish, Acts Bullish.  I can see that as a possibility leading to a Bullish/Accumulation bias since the current TR evolved out of a prior uptrend and price is more likely to emerge from this consolidation heading in the same direction.

[rotageht]

Hello. How did you attach the image of your chart?

[Frantz Herr]

Hi Rotageht.  When you posted your question, you opened up a dialog box.  At the top on the right hand side there is a little landscape icon.  If you click that you can post pictures in .png format.  Also, at the bottom of the box, there is a box titled Attachments:  If you click the Choose File box, you should be able to add a document file.  Hope this helps…  Frantz

[Frantz Herr]

The Biotech Industry ended last week in the 1/197 position within IBD’s industry classification

[Frantz Herr]

Here’s a weekly chart of a biotech on my WL (name withheld to protect the innocent).  Wyckoff Nation, what is your opinion of the bias; and what about timing and character for the next move?

[admin]

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