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    Replies
    • #10257
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      Accumulation or Distribution?

       

      • #10298
        ryanm1982
        Participant

        Schlumberger options trade +60%

         

         

        Attachments:
      • #10259
        Curt Miller
        Participant

        Frantz – I’ve zoomed in on the most recent price action.  To me it looks like a structure within a structure or possibly a TR in a BUA.  The recent TR showing some signs of volatility with the SOW then immediately shooting up to an UTA.  However, the volatility seems to be slowing and price is not reaching the bottom of the TR.  Is it working off some of that supply?  I am guessing Accumulation.  I don’t feel confident in my answer.  I have gotten Roman’s bias game wrong for the last three weeks.

        Attachments:
        • #10262
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Thanks Curt, we are in agreement.  Here’s the weekly bar chart.  This is on my WL but I want to see more signs of absorption and good demand before buying.

          The broad U.S. stock market appears to be dealing with hidden supply at resistance and feels heavy to me; so that could put the kibosh on my bullish ideas.

    • #10108
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

    • #10063
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #10313
        skoutasg
        Participant

        RE: GBTC (BITCOIN)

        SRATEGY: LONG

        Where does price go from here? IMHO, we are today looking at an ABC correction action nestled within another measured move up? The ABC pattern represents reabsorption or accumulation by the composite man. Notice the spike in volume at the reaction lows. Maybe a good place to enter whether you’re a swing trader or long-term investor? I’m long for the duration of the campaign. Where she stops, no one knows? IMHO.

        Attachments:
      • #10207
        skoutasg
        Participant

        RE: /ZN (10-YEAR US TREAS FUTURES)

        Where will in the yield go? Up or down? What are your thoughts? In any event, Wyckoffians will need to await developments before entering a trade.

        Attachments:
      • #10112
        skoutasg
        Participant

        TO: FORUM USERS

        RE: MCK

        Today updated this previously discussed stock from Distribution to Measured Move Up (CDAB). The artistry of this MM is absolutely amazing. That’s why they are the masters of the universe. Target price equals $378.  IMHO.

        Attachments:
        • #10114
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Skout – I am currently holding a half position of MCK.  I sold half the day before ER to lock in profits.  This one is interesting to me because the price has been doing well considering the relative strength appears to be lagging.

          Attachments:
      • #10087
        Curt Miller
        Participant

        SYNH – Despite the market sell off I had a stock on my watchlist trigger a buy.  I would welcome anyone’s thoughts on the trade.  The BUA showed a huge amount of supply that didnt go any lower.  I entered on the breakout above $84.  Would anyone categorize today’s volume as “climactic”?   I’m wondering if I should expect hesitation before price resumes higher or a reversal.

        Attachments:
        • #10102
          skoutasg
          Participant

          Curt:

          RE: SYNH

          Looks to me this stock at its recent high completed wave B of a measured move up (CDAB). The campaign is likely to continue, IMHO. For what it’s worth, Yahoo Finance reports a 1st target price of $95.09. However, when the campaign ends, no one knows except the Smart Money. Good luck!

          Attachments:
          • #10106
            ArkadiyRezviy
            Participant

            *

            Attachments:
          • #10104
            ArkadiyRezviy
            Participant

            Hi gang, I got a little sick, but now I’m in the ranks.SYNH/IMHO

            Attachments:
            • #10109
              Frantz Herr
              Moderator

              Hi Arkadiy, glad you’re well and back with us!  Nice charts…  Frantz

        • #10089
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Curt, the high volume bar from last week fully tests the breakout Sbar from last month suggesting additional testing to come.  The key local resistance to overcome is 87.50.  Note how Supply came in in the form of the Supply tail on today’s bar.  Overcoming and committing firmly above 87.50 would be confirmation of continuation higher imo.  I would protect under 77.75ish.  Thanks for posting.  Frantz

          • #10090
            Curt Miller
            Participant

            Frantz – Thanks for commenting.  I agree a test is necessary but I thought the the price action yesterday would be a successful test (higher low on lower volume).  What do you look for with a successful test?

            • #10091
              Frantz Herr
              Moderator

              Curt, those two high volume bars last week have both S>>> And D>>> suggesting there is still S to absorb.  A successful test for me would be contained within the body of last month’s breakout Sbar, preferably the upper 1/2 imo.  It’s the market, so as always, anything can happen.  Frantz

    • #9805
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #10067
        shhmi9
        Participant

        Hey

        this is polish index wig20. i think it is acumulation structure.

        Attachments:
        • #10084
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Shhmi9 –  I would agree.  Looks like it is exiting the trading range on rising demand.  I would be watching to see a backing up action.

          • #10303
            shhmi9
            Participant

            hey

            wig20 at present

            Attachments:
      • #10061
        skoutasg
        Participant

        SUBJ: AAPL

        RE: How even the mighty fall, eventually. Note how limit buy orders are filled by the MMs and how they bypass the sell stop orders to round out this Distribution trading range.

        Attachments:
        • #10064
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Skout, the AAPL pattern, with minor variations, is typical of a broad swath of prior growth leadership.  Meanwhile, dead value has come to life.  Rotation.

          • #10065
            Frantz Herr
            Moderator

            27:50 to 34:15 of this week’s Tape Reading Lab discussion (Monday, May 3) Roman and William analyze AAPL’s structure on the daily chart for Supply and Demand imbalances.

      • #9998
        Curt Miller
        Participant

        ALDX:  I almost posted this the other day but forgot.  Take a look at my entry and more importantly my exit.  Then look what happened a few days later.  I got scared out of a position because the supply was increasing on the way down that broke local support but not the trading range support.  Gonna wish I had this one back.

        Attachments:
        • #10006
          skoutasg
          Participant

          Curt: I sympathize with your disappointment. However, I view the reaction high as a short-covering rally which will be short-lived (no pun intended). IMHO, we are looking at a distribution TR therefore look for price to decline.

      • #9954
        Curt Miller
        Participant

        Frantz:  I watched your presentation with Teresa on the Best of Wyckoff Conference.   Very nice job!  Good info.  I found it interesting that Teresa recommended doing trade review immediately after closing the trade.  I have always waited a month or so after closing the trade because I want to see how the price action resolves itself after I close.  That way I can determine if my exit was too early or too late.

        • #9958
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Hi Curt, thanks for the BOW feedback.  Doing post trade analysis is far better than not, regardless of the timing!  For me, it is better to do my pta while everything is fresh in my mind.  It has helped me improve my entries, SL placement and risk management tremendously; and if I need to tweak one of my rules I can do it right away.

    • #9724
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9951
        skoutasg
        Participant

        Who says we can’t use Wyckoff for day trading? Picture perfect!

        Attachments:
        • #9953
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Nice! Were you able to capitalize on the trade?  If so where were your entries/exits?

          • #9957
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Curt: Thank you for commenting. To answer your question, I don’t trade intraday because you can’t outsmart the Smart Money. I have long holdings so monitor the Dow Average looking for that turning point we all know is coming. Looks like for now the powers that be are content with manipulating price down from the high to a low where they book profits, then raise the price again, then repeat. I think SM will repeat this process until they can dispose of all their holdings of value related stocks, which have lagged the bull market. Once, the disposal of these stocks has met their inventory objectives, then the big short will occur. IMHO.

      • #9884
        skoutasg
        Participant

        TO: VIEWERS

        RE: /YM

        Friends, your thoughts on the daily chart of the Dow Futures (YM)? Distribution or Reaccumulation? How far down it will go, only the Smart Money knows.

        Attachments:
      • #9856
        skoutasg
        Participant

        TO: VIEWERS

        RE: /YM 5-day chart

        My friends, it looks like the bull market continues for now? Your thoughts?

        Attachments:
      • #9841
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Forum Users

        Re: DOW

        Friends owned this stock since 1/17/20. So far, nice profit, but unfortunately good things eventually end. Or do they? Is DOW under distribution? Seems so as confirmed by my daily and weekly charts. IMHO. Doesn’t seem possible. If so, the Market has undervalued this blue chip per dividend yield theory, but why? Maybe it’s proof that the Smart Money is preparing the Market for the correction that may come soon? Your thoughts on Dow and the Market?

        Attachments:
        • #9865
          wwlGamer
          Participant

          Hello, newbie here. Was active a while back but had to postpone my studies in Wyckoff due to some personal issues. Thought I see a couple of RA TR emerging (including the latest one in Dec-20) but not much hints of Distribution. While I do see volume increasing since Mar-21, emergence of supply may suggest either a TR for absorption of supply or a reaction if supply is not absorbed? And in the last 1 year, we are at least seeing HLs/HHs and also RS relative to SPX and sector shows uptrending signs. So not sure about the bearish interpretation of the chart. Happy to hear the bearish side. Thank you

        • #9844
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Skout, watch Bruce Fraser’s Power Charting this week (it’s on YouTube) at 13:00 for a DJIA discussion…

          Frantz

          • #9845
            Frantz Herr
            Moderator

            Skout, Oops, your post was Dow Chemical, not the DJIA…  my bad

      • #9802
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Form Users

        Re: UNH/XLV

        Friends, it looks like we have a UTAD forming in the UNH trading range established after its most recent high, a precursor to a markdown. Although it’s early, the XLV etf looks like it will confirm the markdown hypothesis. Your thoughts?

        Attachments:
      • #9799
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Forum Users

        Re $DJI

        I submit the 4-day chart of the Dow 30 in 1-minute format. Take heart my friends because it looks as though the DOW is not yet ready for the cellar. Expect the markup to begin next week. Based on recent history, a long accumulation trading range is not expected. Looks like this pattern has been repeating over and over of late as the Composite Man rejects the penetration of the Dow 30 dividend yield of 2%. Your thoughts? Happy trading. IMHO.

        Attachments:
        • #9801
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Skout – Thanks for sharing.  There was a large amount of supply that came in at the end of the day Friday and I think we need to see the result of this supply.  It has pushed the price down but it hasn’t reached the bottom of the TR.. yet.    If it does breakout of the TR there is still some more supply at the 32,850 level that needs to be overcome.  Like with most Wyckoff analysis it’s a “wait and see” point in time.

      • #9754
        Curt Miller
        Participant

        I’m looking at using options to my Wyckoff analysis.  Can anyone provide any guidance on how to add them into my trading?  I have a good understanding of how options work but I’m not quite sure the best way to apply them to Wyckoff trading.  When a stock hits a trigger entry point should I just buy the option at the market price or should I be doing limit only orders?  Any help would be appreciated.

        • #9763
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Hey Curt

          That is a good question.  I actually need to brush up on options again as have not used them in a very long time.

          In one of the trade analysis videos Roman, and I think it was Frantz, Roman talked about that he used options to trade the underlying stock.   I wondered how he did it as well and his analysis of the options.  Did he buy calls or sell puts, etc…

           

    • #9723
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      Bias Game #86  Accumulation or Distribution?

      • #9726
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

    • #9693
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9694
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        I have been holding a position in several precious metals mining ETF’s since 2019.  I have had them hedged with JDST for nearly a year.  I am not seeing much to be bullish about in the current situation.  Considering unwinding the whole thing.

        • #9696
          skoutasg
          Participant

          TO: FRANTZ

          RE: GDXJ

          Share your concern, the trading range looks like redistribution? IMHO.

          Attachments:
          • #9703
            Frantz Herr
            Moderator

            My ‘catatrophic level’ stops were hit on 2 of my 3 PM etf’s yesterday.  Now I get to find out if my SL placement was correct.  Also closedpart of my hedge position, but I’m net short at the moment.

            • #9704
              Peter Lauterbach
              Participant

              Frantz: so you got stopped out at your danger level! Nothing wrong with that. All of us have been in situations where you just hate to get out of a trade, but its always best to just follow your plan and not start “designing” all kinds of “hedges” and other excuses to stay in making potential losses even greater. I have a sign posted to remind me of this: “Amityville Horror: Get out! Get out! Get out!” 🙂

            • #9713
              Frantz Herr
              Moderator

              Peter:  Absolutely, there was no emotion involved in the decision.  I sold the remainder of my PM ETF holdings today, along with most of the remaining hedge; kept a little of the hedge as a bearish speculation. I got a chuckle from your Amityville sign, it’s an effective reminder I’m sure!

    • #9686
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9690
        Erba
        Participant

        I apologize in advance, I try to understand how it works, I am not a trader, (I execute 2.3 trades per week in EU markets), and perhaps I will never become one I understand my limits, I have a static job and a lot of passion and curiosity. trader is a phrase too underrated by many people.Thank you

        • #9692
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Hi Erba, passion and curiosity provides the energy that keeps us striving to expand our understanding; and expand it will with effort and practice.  Go with it!  Frantz

      • #9687
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        Bias Game #85 – Accumulation or Distribution?

        • #9689
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

    • #9623
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9650
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Forum Contributors

        Re: PNC and XLF

        Thought to solicit your comments to start off the weekend? Do we have a potential distribution trading range forming or a continuation of the trend? Sold at the high but may want to get back in should a reaccumulation range form forthwith.

        Attachments:
        • #9656
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Skout, the big picture looks bullish to me.  I agree with your decision to scale back into this MSOS, but I think I would want to keep a core position and look for opportunities to build back size in whatever BUA might come next.  Looks like a good cause and I don’t see signs of terminal distribution by the CO.  Frantz

        • #9653
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Skout:  I’m currently in AMP which is part of XLF and the chart looks very similar.  You can see my marked up chart.  I thought action on Thursday this week was the end of a Phase A of a trading range so I closed 1/3 position.  Friday the price just took off but I noticed the volume looked climactic so we will have to see what the result is.  If there is a reaction I would look to enter near the $195 area.

          Attachments:
          • #9655
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Curt: Your thoughts on PNC? The AR reaction from the BC looked odd to me compared to the price action during the markup. Also, the potential upthrust scared me. Finally, look at the similarity of the price action in PNC and XLF. The reaction from the ST/UT would need to be huge for this the developing TR to be a reaccumulation. As usual, we must await the development of the TR. IMHO.

            • #9657
              Curt Miller
              Participant

              The AR looks like a change of behavior to me and I would be on the lookout for a ST.  Agree that we need to await the development of the TR.  I wouldn’t be opening any new positions at this time.

      • #9639
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        Bias Game #84

    • #9592
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9627
        skoutasg
        Participant

        CMA: Picture perfect.

        Attachments:
        • #9629
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Hey Skout

          What would your bias be here?

          IMHO it looks like a possible re-distribution ???  Unless it breaks through the upper area with some gusto.

          Now maybe a TR here would be nice but too early to call an accumulation in my opinion.

          Attachments:
          • #9631
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Kenneth: I’m long here with a target price of $72 forming the BC of a reaccumulation trading range, IMHO. CMA is a vastly undervalued blue chip in the financial services sector (XLF) so much out of favor with individual traders but not the Composite Man. Thus, price will rise slowly. But I am monitoring the XLF as it has recently reached a BC with its trading range yet unresolved – either reaccumulation or distribution based on the consensus of the Composite Men. IMHO.

            • #9632
              Kenneth
              Participant

              Got it.  Up! Up! Up! then!!!!!

      • #9611
        Kenneth
        Participant

        LAZR – Reaccumulation

        Bias uptrend

        Daily – Re-accumulation

        Attachments:
        • #9615
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          I agree with your analysis Kenneth.  Once it breaks out of the small trading range I would expect another reaction near the $48 mark.  There was a very large amount of supply at that level.

      • #9606
        Kenneth
        Participant

        BTBT Breakout / Swing play

        Weekly – trending HH’s / HL’s

        D – re-accumulation

         

      • #9596
        ArkadiyRezviy
        Participant

        KHC/XLP/Food Products

        Attachments:
        • #9617
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Arkadiy:  Here’s one in the Food Products industry that I have been following.  UNFI looks like it could be breakout out of a BUA trading range.  I agree with Skout though the XLP is looking weak and is my only reservation on taking a position.

        • #9598
          ArkadiyRezviy
          Participant

          p&F

          Attachments:
          • #9601
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Arkadiy: IMHO. Long on weekly; daily TR not yet completed.

            • #9602
              skoutasg
              Participant

              Arladiy: But beware because the XLP appears to be in distribution, IMHO.

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