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DISCUSS YOUR CHARTS, ANALYSIS AND TRADING
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Accumulation or Distribution?
Schlumberger options trade +60%
Frantz – I’ve zoomed in on the most recent price action. To me it looks like a structure within a structure or possibly a TR in a BUA. The recent TR showing some signs of volatility with the SOW then immediately shooting up to an UTA. However, the volatility seems to be slowing and price is not reaching the bottom of the TR. Is it working off some of that supply? I am guessing Accumulation. I don’t feel confident in my answer. I have gotten Roman’s bias game wrong for the last three weeks.
Thanks Curt, we are in agreement. Here’s the weekly bar chart. This is on my WL but I want to see more signs of absorption and good demand before buying.
The broad U.S. stock market appears to be dealing with hidden supply at resistance and feels heavy to me; so that could put the kibosh on my bullish ideas.
RE: GBTC (BITCOIN)
Where does price go from here? IMHO, we are today looking at an ABC correction action nestled within another measured move up? The ABC pattern represents reabsorption or accumulation by the composite man. Notice the spike in volume at the reaction lows. Maybe a good place to enter whether you’re a swing trader or long-term investor? I’m long for the duration of the campaign. Where she stops, no one knows? IMHO.
RE: /ZN (10-YEAR US TREAS FUTURES)
Where will in the yield go? Up or down? What are your thoughts? In any event, Wyckoffians will need to await developments before entering a trade.
TO: FORUM USERS
Today updated this previously discussed stock from Distribution to Measured Move Up (CDAB). The artistry of this MM is absolutely amazing. That’s why they are the masters of the universe. Target price equals $378. IMHO.
Skout – I am currently holding a half position of MCK. I sold half the day before ER to lock in profits. This one is interesting to me because the price has been doing well considering the relative strength appears to be lagging.
SYNH – Despite the market sell off I had a stock on my watchlist trigger a buy. I would welcome anyone’s thoughts on the trade. The BUA showed a huge amount of supply that didnt go any lower. I entered on the breakout above $84. Would anyone categorize today’s volume as “climactic”? I’m wondering if I should expect hesitation before price resumes higher or a reversal.
Looks to me this stock at its recent high completed wave B of a measured move up (CDAB). The campaign is likely to continue, IMHO. For what it’s worth, Yahoo Finance reports a 1st target price of $95.09. However, when the campaign ends, no one knows except the Smart Money. Good luck!
Hi gang, I got a little sick, but now I’m in the ranks.SYNH/IMHO
Hi Arkadiy, glad you’re well and back with us! Nice charts… Frantz
Curt, the high volume bar from last week fully tests the breakout Sbar from last month suggesting additional testing to come. The key local resistance to overcome is 87.50. Note how Supply came in in the form of the Supply tail on today’s bar. Overcoming and committing firmly above 87.50 would be confirmation of continuation higher imo. I would protect under 77.75ish. Thanks for posting. Frantz
Frantz – Thanks for commenting. I agree a test is necessary but I thought the the price action yesterday would be a successful test (higher low on lower volume). What do you look for with a successful test?
Curt, those two high volume bars last week have both S>>> And D>>> suggesting there is still S to absorb. A successful test for me would be contained within the body of last month’s breakout Sbar, preferably the upper 1/2 imo. It’s the market, so as always, anything can happen. Frantz
this is polish index wig20. i think it is acumulation structure.
RE: How even the mighty fall, eventually. Note how limit buy orders are filled by the MMs and how they bypass the sell stop orders to round out this Distribution trading range.
Skout, the AAPL pattern, with minor variations, is typical of a broad swath of prior growth leadership. Meanwhile, dead value has come to life. Rotation.
27:50 to 34:15 of this week’s Tape Reading Lab discussion (Monday, May 3) Roman and William analyze AAPL’s structure on the daily chart for Supply and Demand imbalances.
ALDX: I almost posted this the other day but forgot. Take a look at my entry and more importantly my exit. Then look what happened a few days later. I got scared out of a position because the supply was increasing on the way down that broke local support but not the trading range support. Gonna wish I had this one back.
Curt: I sympathize with your disappointment. However, I view the reaction high as a short-covering rally which will be short-lived (no pun intended). IMHO, we are looking at a distribution TR therefore look for price to decline.
Frantz: I watched your presentation with Teresa on the Best of Wyckoff Conference. Very nice job! Good info. I found it interesting that Teresa recommended doing trade review immediately after closing the trade. I have always waited a month or so after closing the trade because I want to see how the price action resolves itself after I close. That way I can determine if my exit was too early or too late.
Hi Curt, thanks for the BOW feedback. Doing post trade analysis is far better than not, regardless of the timing! For me, it is better to do my pta while everything is fresh in my mind. It has helped me improve my entries, SL placement and risk management tremendously; and if I need to tweak one of my rules I can do it right away.
Who says we can’t use Wyckoff for day trading? Picture perfect!
Nice! Were you able to capitalize on the trade? If so where were your entries/exits?
Curt: Thank you for commenting. To answer your question, I don’t trade intraday because you can’t outsmart the Smart Money. I have long holdings so monitor the Dow Average looking for that turning point we all know is coming. Looks like for now the powers that be are content with manipulating price down from the high to a low where they book profits, then raise the price again, then repeat. I think SM will repeat this process until they can dispose of all their holdings of value related stocks, which have lagged the bull market. Once, the disposal of these stocks has met their inventory objectives, then the big short will occur. IMHO.
Friends, your thoughts on the daily chart of the Dow Futures (YM)? Distribution or Reaccumulation? How far down it will go, only the Smart Money knows.
RE: /YM 5-day chart
My friends, it looks like the bull market continues for now? Your thoughts?
To: Forum Users
Friends owned this stock since 1/17/20. So far, nice profit, but unfortunately good things eventually end. Or do they? Is DOW under distribution? Seems so as confirmed by my daily and weekly charts. IMHO. Doesn’t seem possible. If so, the Market has undervalued this blue chip per dividend yield theory, but why? Maybe it’s proof that the Smart Money is preparing the Market for the correction that may come soon? Your thoughts on Dow and the Market?
Hello, newbie here. Was active a while back but had to postpone my studies in Wyckoff due to some personal issues. Thought I see a couple of RA TR emerging (including the latest one in Dec-20) but not much hints of Distribution. While I do see volume increasing since Mar-21, emergence of supply may suggest either a TR for absorption of supply or a reaction if supply is not absorbed? And in the last 1 year, we are at least seeing HLs/HHs and also RS relative to SPX and sector shows uptrending signs. So not sure about the bearish interpretation of the chart. Happy to hear the bearish side. Thank you
Skout, watch Bruce Fraser’s Power Charting this week (it’s on YouTube) at 13:00 for a DJIA discussion…
Skout, Oops, your post was Dow Chemical, not the DJIA… my bad
To: Form Users
Friends, it looks like we have a UTAD forming in the UNH trading range established after its most recent high, a precursor to a markdown. Although it’s early, the XLV etf looks like it will confirm the markdown hypothesis. Your thoughts?
To: Forum Users
I submit the 4-day chart of the Dow 30 in 1-minute format. Take heart my friends because it looks as though the DOW is not yet ready for the cellar. Expect the markup to begin next week. Based on recent history, a long accumulation trading range is not expected. Looks like this pattern has been repeating over and over of late as the Composite Man rejects the penetration of the Dow 30 dividend yield of 2%. Your thoughts? Happy trading. IMHO.
Skout – Thanks for sharing. There was a large amount of supply that came in at the end of the day Friday and I think we need to see the result of this supply. It has pushed the price down but it hasn’t reached the bottom of the TR.. yet. If it does breakout of the TR there is still some more supply at the 32,850 level that needs to be overcome. Like with most Wyckoff analysis it’s a “wait and see” point in time.
I’m looking at using options to my Wyckoff analysis. Can anyone provide any guidance on how to add them into my trading? I have a good understanding of how options work but I’m not quite sure the best way to apply them to Wyckoff trading. When a stock hits a trigger entry point should I just buy the option at the market price or should I be doing limit only orders? Any help would be appreciated.
That is a good question. I actually need to brush up on options again as have not used them in a very long time.
In one of the trade analysis videos Roman, and I think it was Frantz, Roman talked about that he used options to trade the underlying stock. I wondered how he did it as well and his analysis of the options. Did he buy calls or sell puts, etc…
Bias Game #86 Accumulation or Distribution?
I have been holding a position in several precious metals mining ETF’s since 2019. I have had them hedged with JDST for nearly a year. I am not seeing much to be bullish about in the current situation. Considering unwinding the whole thing.
Share your concern, the trading range looks like redistribution? IMHO.
My ‘catatrophic level’ stops were hit on 2 of my 3 PM etf’s yesterday. Now I get to find out if my SL placement was correct. Also closedpart of my hedge position, but I’m net short at the moment.
Frantz: so you got stopped out at your danger level! Nothing wrong with that. All of us have been in situations where you just hate to get out of a trade, but its always best to just follow your plan and not start “designing” all kinds of “hedges” and other excuses to stay in making potential losses even greater. I have a sign posted to remind me of this: “Amityville Horror: Get out! Get out! Get out!” 🙂
Peter: Absolutely, there was no emotion involved in the decision. I sold the remainder of my PM ETF holdings today, along with most of the remaining hedge; kept a little of the hedge as a bearish speculation. I got a chuckle from your Amityville sign, it’s an effective reminder I’m sure!
I apologize in advance, I try to understand how it works, I am not a trader, (I execute 2.3 trades per week in EU markets), and perhaps I will never become one I understand my limits, I have a static job and a lot of passion and curiosity. trader is a phrase too underrated by many people.Thank you
Hi Erba, passion and curiosity provides the energy that keeps us striving to expand our understanding; and expand it will with effort and practice. Go with it! Frantz
Bias Game #85 – Accumulation or Distribution?
To: Forum Contributors
Re: PNC and XLF
Thought to solicit your comments to start off the weekend? Do we have a potential distribution trading range forming or a continuation of the trend? Sold at the high but may want to get back in should a reaccumulation range form forthwith.
Skout, the big picture looks bullish to me. I agree with your decision to scale back into this MSOS, but I think I would want to keep a core position and look for opportunities to build back size in whatever BUA might come next. Looks like a good cause and I don’t see signs of terminal distribution by the CO. Frantz
Skout: I’m currently in AMP which is part of XLF and the chart looks very similar. You can see my marked up chart. I thought action on Thursday this week was the end of a Phase A of a trading range so I closed 1/3 position. Friday the price just took off but I noticed the volume looked climactic so we will have to see what the result is. If there is a reaction I would look to enter near the $195 area.
Curt: Your thoughts on PNC? The AR reaction from the BC looked odd to me compared to the price action during the markup. Also, the potential upthrust scared me. Finally, look at the similarity of the price action in PNC and XLF. The reaction from the ST/UT would need to be huge for this the developing TR to be a reaccumulation. As usual, we must await the development of the TR. IMHO.
The AR looks like a change of behavior to me and I would be on the lookout for a ST. Agree that we need to await the development of the TR. I wouldn’t be opening any new positions at this time.
Bias Game #84
CMA: Picture perfect.
What would your bias be here?
IMHO it looks like a possible re-distribution ??? Unless it breaks through the upper area with some gusto.
Now maybe a TR here would be nice but too early to call an accumulation in my opinion.
Kenneth: I’m long here with a target price of $72 forming the BC of a reaccumulation trading range, IMHO. CMA is a vastly undervalued blue chip in the financial services sector (XLF) so much out of favor with individual traders but not the Composite Man. Thus, price will rise slowly. But I am monitoring the XLF as it has recently reached a BC with its trading range yet unresolved – either reaccumulation or distribution based on the consensus of the Composite Men. IMHO.
Got it. Up! Up! Up! then!!!!!
LAZR – Reaccumulation
Daily – Re-accumulation
I agree with your analysis Kenneth. Once it breaks out of the small trading range I would expect another reaction near the $48 mark. There was a very large amount of supply at that level.
BTBT Breakout / Swing play
Weekly – trending HH’s / HL’s
D – re-accumulation
Arkadiy: Here’s one in the Food Products industry that I have been following. UNFI looks like it could be breakout out of a BUA trading range. I agree with Skout though the XLP is looking weak and is my only reservation on taking a position.
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