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Wyckoff Market Discussion (3+ months) - Use Once
A Detailed Look Into Springboards
Back-Testing/Validating Trading Plan (2017)
Beyond Springs And Upthrusts
High Probability Wyckoff Trade Setups
Improving Your Wyckoff Swing Trading Results
Intraday Trading Using The Wyckoff Method
Long-Term Campaigns and Tactical Swing Trades
Momentum, Volume And Price Structure
Point-and-Figure Part III
Practices For Successful Trading
Scan For Success Part 1
Scan For Success Part 2
Swing Trading Using The Wyckoff Method
Trading Technical Analysis Signals
Trust the Process
Upgrading Your Trading Plan (2018)
Wyckoff Market Discussion (3+ months) - Use Once
Wyckoff Market Discussion (3+ months) - Use Once
A Detailed Look Into Springboards
Back-Testing/Validating Trading Plan (2017)
Beyond Springs And Upthrusts
High Probability Wyckoff Trade Setups
Improving Your Wyckoff Swing Trading Results
Intraday Trading Using The Wyckoff Method
Long-Term Campaigns and Tactical Swing Trades
Momentum, Volume And Price Structure
Point-and-Figure Part III
Practices For Successful Trading
Scan For Success Part 1
Scan For Success Part 2
Swing Trading Using The Wyckoff Method
Trading Technical Analysis Signals
Trust the Process
Upgrading Your Trading Plan (2018)
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DISCUSS YOUR CHARTS, ANALYSIS AND TRADING

Be an active member of Wyckoff Nation! Post your chart analysis – past, present or future trades; or post about trading setups or process in general. Discuss Wyckoff related questions with your peers. Make a post and engage with your fellow Wyckoffians!!

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    Replies
    • #9805
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

    • #9724
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9884
        skoutasg
        Participant

        TO: VIEWERS

        RE: /YM

        Friends, your thoughts on the daily chart of the Dow Futures (YM)? Distribution or Reaccumulation? How far down it will go, only the Smart Money knows.

        Attachments:
      • #9856
        skoutasg
        Participant

        TO: VIEWERS

        RE: /YM 5-day chart

        My friends, it looks like the bull market continues for now? Your thoughts?

        Attachments:
      • #9841
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Forum Users

        Re: DOW

        Friends owned this stock since 1/17/20. So far, nice profit, but unfortunately good things eventually end. Or do they? Is DOW under distribution? Seems so as confirmed by my daily and weekly charts. IMHO. Doesn’t seem possible. If so, the Market has undervalued this blue chip per dividend yield theory, but why? Maybe it’s proof that the Smart Money is preparing the Market for the correction that may come soon? Your thoughts on Dow and the Market?

        Attachments:
        • #9865
          wwlGamer
          Participant

          Hello, newbie here. Was active a while back but had to postpone my studies in Wyckoff due to some personal issues. Thought I see a couple of RA TR emerging (including the latest one in Dec-20) but not much hints of Distribution. While I do see volume increasing since Mar-21, emergence of supply may suggest either a TR for absorption of supply or a reaction if supply is not absorbed? And in the last 1 year, we are at least seeing HLs/HHs and also RS relative to SPX and sector shows uptrending signs. So not sure about the bearish interpretation of the chart. Happy to hear the bearish side. Thank you

        • #9844
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Skout, watch Bruce Fraser’s Power Charting this week (it’s on YouTube) at 13:00 for a DJIA discussion…

          Frantz

          • #9845
            Frantz Herr
            Moderator

            Skout, Oops, your post was Dow Chemical, not the DJIA…  my bad

      • #9802
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Form Users

        Re: UNH/XLV

        Friends, it looks like we have a UTAD forming in the UNH trading range established after its most recent high, a precursor to a markdown. Although it’s early, the XLV etf looks like it will confirm the markdown hypothesis. Your thoughts?

        Attachments:
      • #9799
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Forum Users

        Re $DJI

        I submit the 4-day chart of the Dow 30 in 1-minute format. Take heart my friends because it looks as though the DOW is not yet ready for the cellar. Expect the markup to begin next week. Based on recent history, a long accumulation trading range is not expected. Looks like this pattern has been repeating over and over of late as the Composite Man rejects the penetration of the Dow 30 dividend yield of 2%. Your thoughts? Happy trading. IMHO.

        Attachments:
        • #9801
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Skout – Thanks for sharing.  There was a large amount of supply that came in at the end of the day Friday and I think we need to see the result of this supply.  It has pushed the price down but it hasn’t reached the bottom of the TR.. yet.    If it does breakout of the TR there is still some more supply at the 32,850 level that needs to be overcome.  Like with most Wyckoff analysis it’s a “wait and see” point in time.

      • #9754
        Curt Miller
        Participant

        I’m looking at using options to my Wyckoff analysis.  Can anyone provide any guidance on how to add them into my trading?  I have a good understanding of how options work but I’m not quite sure the best way to apply them to Wyckoff trading.  When a stock hits a trigger entry point should I just buy the option at the market price or should I be doing limit only orders?  Any help would be appreciated.

        • #9763
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Hey Curt

          That is a good question.  I actually need to brush up on options again as have not used them in a very long time.

          In one of the trade analysis videos Roman, and I think it was Frantz, Roman talked about that he used options to trade the underlying stock.   I wondered how he did it as well and his analysis of the options.  Did he buy calls or sell puts, etc…

           

    • #9723
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      Bias Game #86  Accumulation or Distribution?

      • #9726
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

    • #9693
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9694
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        I have been holding a position in several precious metals mining ETF’s since 2019.  I have had them hedged with JDST for nearly a year.  I am not seeing much to be bullish about in the current situation.  Considering unwinding the whole thing.

        • #9696
          skoutasg
          Participant

          TO: FRANTZ

          RE: GDXJ

          Share your concern, the trading range looks like redistribution? IMHO.

          Attachments:
          • #9703
            Frantz Herr
            Moderator

            My ‘catatrophic level’ stops were hit on 2 of my 3 PM etf’s yesterday.  Now I get to find out if my SL placement was correct.  Also closedpart of my hedge position, but I’m net short at the moment.

            • #9704
              Peter Lauterbach
              Participant

              Frantz: so you got stopped out at your danger level! Nothing wrong with that. All of us have been in situations where you just hate to get out of a trade, but its always best to just follow your plan and not start “designing” all kinds of “hedges” and other excuses to stay in making potential losses even greater. I have a sign posted to remind me of this: “Amityville Horror: Get out! Get out! Get out!” 🙂

            • #9713
              Frantz Herr
              Moderator

              Peter:  Absolutely, there was no emotion involved in the decision.  I sold the remainder of my PM ETF holdings today, along with most of the remaining hedge; kept a little of the hedge as a bearish speculation. I got a chuckle from your Amityville sign, it’s an effective reminder I’m sure!

    • #9686
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9690
        Erba
        Participant

        I apologize in advance, I try to understand how it works, I am not a trader, (I execute 2.3 trades per week in EU markets), and perhaps I will never become one I understand my limits, I have a static job and a lot of passion and curiosity. trader is a phrase too underrated by many people.Thank you

        • #9692
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Hi Erba, passion and curiosity provides the energy that keeps us striving to expand our understanding; and expand it will with effort and practice.  Go with it!  Frantz

      • #9687
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        Bias Game #85 – Accumulation or Distribution?

        • #9689
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

    • #9623
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9650
        skoutasg
        Participant

        To: Forum Contributors

        Re: PNC and XLF

        Thought to solicit your comments to start off the weekend? Do we have a potential distribution trading range forming or a continuation of the trend? Sold at the high but may want to get back in should a reaccumulation range form forthwith.

        Attachments:
        • #9656
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Skout, the big picture looks bullish to me.  I agree with your decision to scale back into this MSOS, but I think I would want to keep a core position and look for opportunities to build back size in whatever BUA might come next.  Looks like a good cause and I don’t see signs of terminal distribution by the CO.  Frantz

        • #9653
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Skout:  I’m currently in AMP which is part of XLF and the chart looks very similar.  You can see my marked up chart.  I thought action on Thursday this week was the end of a Phase A of a trading range so I closed 1/3 position.  Friday the price just took off but I noticed the volume looked climactic so we will have to see what the result is.  If there is a reaction I would look to enter near the $195 area.

          Attachments:
          • #9655
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Curt: Your thoughts on PNC? The AR reaction from the BC looked odd to me compared to the price action during the markup. Also, the potential upthrust scared me. Finally, look at the similarity of the price action in PNC and XLF. The reaction from the ST/UT would need to be huge for this the developing TR to be a reaccumulation. As usual, we must await the development of the TR. IMHO.

            • #9657
              Curt Miller
              Participant

              The AR looks like a change of behavior to me and I would be on the lookout for a ST.  Agree that we need to await the development of the TR.  I wouldn’t be opening any new positions at this time.

      • #9639
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        Bias Game #84

    • #9592
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9627
        skoutasg
        Participant

        CMA: Picture perfect.

        Attachments:
        • #9629
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Hey Skout

          What would your bias be here?

          IMHO it looks like a possible re-distribution ???  Unless it breaks through the upper area with some gusto.

          Now maybe a TR here would be nice but too early to call an accumulation in my opinion.

          Attachments:
          • #9631
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Kenneth: I’m long here with a target price of $72 forming the BC of a reaccumulation trading range, IMHO. CMA is a vastly undervalued blue chip in the financial services sector (XLF) so much out of favor with individual traders but not the Composite Man. Thus, price will rise slowly. But I am monitoring the XLF as it has recently reached a BC with its trading range yet unresolved – either reaccumulation or distribution based on the consensus of the Composite Men. IMHO.

            • #9632
              Kenneth
              Participant

              Got it.  Up! Up! Up! then!!!!!

      • #9611
        Kenneth
        Participant

        LAZR – Reaccumulation

        Bias uptrend

        Daily – Re-accumulation

        Attachments:
        • #9615
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          I agree with your analysis Kenneth.  Once it breaks out of the small trading range I would expect another reaction near the $48 mark.  There was a very large amount of supply at that level.

      • #9606
        Kenneth
        Participant

        BTBT Breakout / Swing play

        Weekly – trending HH’s / HL’s

        D – re-accumulation

         

      • #9596
        ArkadiyRezviy
        Participant

        KHC/XLP/Food Products

        Attachments:
        • #9617
          Curt Miller
          Participant

          Arkadiy:  Here’s one in the Food Products industry that I have been following.  UNFI looks like it could be breakout out of a BUA trading range.  I agree with Skout though the XLP is looking weak and is my only reservation on taking a position.

        • #9598
          ArkadiyRezviy
          Participant

          p&F

          Attachments:
          • #9601
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Arkadiy: IMHO. Long on weekly; daily TR not yet completed.

            • #9602
              skoutasg
              Participant

              Arladiy: But beware because the XLP appears to be in distribution, IMHO.

    • #9568
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      Bias Game #83

      Accumulation or Distribution?

      • #9589
        Kenneth
        Participant

        Bias Game 83 Distribution IMO

        I see the chart in two different regions.  Downtrend and then an uptrend that is the accumulation.  If anything it was a lot of time spent and should prove as an amusing pic of chicken scratch ;-P

        Bias Game 83

        • #9609
          Kenneth
          Participant

          And another one incorrect 🙁

      • #9580
        Frantz Herr
        Moderator

        This one is a challenge.  The overnight sessions cloud the water, and the downswing on the last day does not satisfy the intent of sellers to push price lower.  However, the TR originates from a downtrend, and Supply off the top of the selling climax downswing is not being overcome.  So I am going to hold my nose and vote for this as Re-Distribution.

        • #9590
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Great to see you Frantz

        • #9581
          ArkadiyRezviy
          Participant

          yes you are right my mistake

      • #9569
        ArkadiyRezviy
        Participant

        accomulation/imho

        Attachments:
    • #9555
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9572
        ArkadiyRezviy
        Participant

        friends, what is your opinion?coty

        • #9582
          ArkadiyRezviy
          Participant

          friends, thank you all for your help

        • #9577
          Frantz Herr
          Moderator

          Arkadiy, here’s how Coty’s industry group is doing if this is any help:

        • #9575
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Here is my take on COTY.  Interesting one

          Quick vol analysis attempt here as well.  If anybody has a different opinion of vol please let me know.

          Attachments:
          • #9578
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Arkadiy re COTY:  Daily and Wkly looking good, but look at the XLP which is the consumer staple (XLP).  IMHO looks like it may be in distribution?

            Attachments:
            • #9595
              Kenneth
              Participant

              Hey Skout

              Apologies in advance but would like to present another view of accumulation

              XLP Sector Acc

               

            • #9600
              skoutasg
              Participant

              Kenneth:  Sure hope that you are correct since I have about 5 bank stocks in my portfolio.  Hate to see their wonderful recovery now go down in flames.  Best

            • #9603
              skoutasg
              Participant

              Whoops, a bank reference, not, since we are talking about XLP”s.

            • #9591
              Kenneth
              Participant

              Hey Skout

              Will take a look at XLP.  Thanks for the tip

      • #9571
        skoutasg
        Participant

        Gang: No disrespect to the bias game, but for real the sectors that follow are under distribution – XLC, XLI, XLK and XLP. Commentary, if you please?

      • #9564
        Kenneth
        Participant

        TYME has been a rollercoster since I last updated.

         

    • #9526
      Frantz Herr
      Moderator

      New thread

      • #9553
        skoutasg
        Participant

        FB: Let’s play the bias game with FB. Accumulation or distribution, and why?

        Attachments:
        • #9561
          Kenneth
          Participant

          Agree with Arkad with short term distribution

          Would say needs confirmation as it is looking a little undecided on which way it wants to go to be honest.

          Attachments:
        • #9556
          ArkadiyRezviy
          Participant

          potential distribution/imho

          Attachments:
      • #9550
        Kenneth
        Participant

        Views on CNFR?

        Weekly is starting markup?

        CHoB and CHoCH

        This is another that did not show much negative price reaction from the March Madness dips

        • #9552
          skoutasg
          Participant

          Ken: Agree with your assessment. IMHO, confirmed by the daily chart as well. Buckle up for a wild ride.

      • #9539
        Kenneth
        Participant

        CLRO Accumulation

        Long term Monthly has been distribution with it looking like it is forming a multi-year accumulation base.

        Intermediate Weekly bias is accumulation.

        What I like is the near non existant march madness dip that is everywhere.

        Bars: March madness bars have very little effect with subsequent lows as it only scores a HL. This suggests that strong hands are involved here.

         

        • #9543
          skoutasg
          Participant

          KEN RE CLRO: You nailed it. IMHO, await earnings report on 3/30 for further evaluation.

      • #9532
        skoutasg
        Participant

        CVS: Yes, this much maligned blue chip may be poised to exit its accumulation trading range (TR). Will Smart Money await earnings on 2/16 before it commits to the campaign? IMHO.

        Attachments:
      • #9527
        ArkadiyRezviy
        Participant

        Base Game # EBAY )

        • #9531
          ArkadiyRezviy
          Participant

          distribution/imho

          • #9534
            skoutasg
            Participant

            Arkadiy: Undecided on EBAY. Price just came out of a reaccumulation range on the daily chart. The weekly chart evidences a buying climax (BC) which TR will turn out as another reaccumulation or distribution. Therefore, I’m out for now. IMHO.

            Attachments:
            • #9537
              ArkadiyRezviy
              Participant

              stoutasg,the question is what do we have – re-accumulation or distribution. I am confused by E / R.If you have an effort expressed the result should be in proportion to the effort. If a stock has been moving up every day with a two point spread every day with ten thousand shares and it breaks into the high ground with twenty thousand shares and a half point spread for a couple of days straight we know supply is coming in and is overcoming the demand. This is an effort that is not having an proportionate result, therefore the stock is likely to be in trouble and have a reversal in its movement.Time will put everything in its place

            • #9538
              skoutasg
              Participant

              Arkadiy: Good observation. I’m a long-term investor, not trader, so my bias is always on the weekly chart. IMHO, all trading ranges are manipulations initiated by the Smart Money. The Wyckoff method is a study of these manipulations, IMHO. I am a Wyckoff believer, but I am not wedded to classic Wyckoff. Imagine if today’s chart tools were available to Mr. Wyckoff? At the end of the TR, price can only move up if the Smart Money is accumulating; down if the Smart Money is distributing. Therefore, what is the TR telling us about the “Composite Man’s” intentions should be our focus? My 2-cents.

Viewing 98 reply threads
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