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CRYPTO AND WYCKOFF ANALYSIS
The Wyckoff Method is an excellent tool to analyze crypto assets. Post your crypto idea here – Bitcoin, altcoins or crypto derivatives – and discuss it with the Wyckoff Nation. Both historical charts and current analysis are welcome. Share your thoughts, every chart is an opportunity to improve your tape reading skills!
A flash update. Bitcoin is showing poor lift, we will likely create a lower low in the current formation. Altcoins still look well positioned long term compared to Bitcoin, but the selloff will likely affect the whole market and price will fall back to the supports indicated in the charts. Many cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to quick 50% corrections.
A little btc analog that catches my eye https://www.tradingview.com/x/nUD5q4WS/
Hi, Mr. Alessio
I think tezos ready for the move up to 461.8
happy to knew your opinion
Just wanted to say Thank you Alessio for your content. If it wasn’t for you, I would not know how to best navigate through the crypto environment. Next year when I have more time, will 100% start classes.
Interesting analog, Mark. For now, demand has entered the market and we are seeing a spring. Let’s see if the current demand is consistent.
would i know your opinion about this analysis?
and may you suggest 1 or 2 scenario for this chart?
really thanks for weekly analysis, very helpful to me
I think that SXP has potential to the upside. My preference is generally to wait for a Sign of Strength and a Backup. This asset is still underperforming, but the last segment in yellow is much better than the previous ones. The volume increase suggests that institutions are buying this asset. I would like to see more absorption and decreasing volume. We will discuss SXP more in depth in the next Wyckoff Crypto Discussion, thank you for following us!
many thanks, your points, and analysis are great
The trend lines fit better on the non log chart, but they should just demonstrate the dimininshing upward momentum: Steep trend up, BC (blue), AR (green), fomo over throw above BC, weakness into the area where the overthrow started, consolidation above BC and thereby loosing the steep trend line. A sell-off follows after the level of the BC can’t hold the selling pressure.
Thanks for sharing the charts. Absolutely agree with your analysis. From a seasonality perspective, Bitcoin median return for January is flat according to data from CoinMetrics (daily bitcoin price data for 18/07/2010 to 31/01/2020).
Yes, I see my downside target reached, this could have been it.
Hi Alessio, thank you for posting the weekly crypto market discussion videos. They are great. With regard to rotation, what is your advice on how to structure the short-medium term trades and long term portfolios (campaign positions) based on the relative strength dynamics? What I am particularly interested in are your thoughts about risk management when trading/investing in alts. Many of the alts you cover in the vids are very illiquid and extremely volatile. I have observed that the popular Alts tend to go up when Bitcoin is in sideway consolidation (potential accumulation range). However, when BTC consolidation shows signs of a distributional nature (i.e. further downside expected). Alts can fall precipitously. Another participant (Drag0nflai) asked a question last year about this same topic but I don’t remember you gave an answer.
From a long term portfolio planning perspective, a popular system used by stock traders are to balance the portfolio on a monthly basis
1.use a simple MA to ensure the trend of the market is up.
2. Assess the Rate of Change over the last x days (e.g. 200 days) for each asset and rank the strength of each from strong to weak
3. Hold the top assets (e.g. 3-5) in equal weight and sell those that fall out of the top list.
4. Repeat after close of each month
In the crypto markets, balancing on a monthly basis and use a 200 day ROC isn’t the right timeframe but I wonder if this system can be altered for a crypto portfolio.
From a short term trading perspective, stops can be easily hit by a wick even if the trader is right on the directional bias but not using stops is certainly not a good idea. However, setting up a pairs trade and set a mental stop using daily candles could be an option e.g. short BCH and long UNI. But it’s still not fool proof because the short candidate can shoot up trememdously due to some news and incur much greater than expected loss.
I am keen to learn what trading plan/system you have found to be effective.
Hi Alessio, thank you for the weekly market update vids. They are very informative. I particularly find it helpful to see how you anticipate the price action to unfold in the coming days/weeks. May I suggest covering more than 1 scenario for each chart? Being prepared for different scenarios to play out helps us avoid confirmation bias. Also, I always find the teaching about tape reading (e.g. bar by bar/swing by swing analysis combined with how to manage entries, exits, stops, profit target.. from you and Roman of great value). Look forward to this week’s update.
Hi Drag0nflai, first of all thanks for following us, you have been reading the crypto blogs since last year. Sometimes it’s not easy to share many scenarios in just thirty minutes, but we will definitely try to do that. I think it will be very important to show several scenarios once we see some corrective movement in the market. That would be a remarkable turning point where we have to switch from the trend following mode (up-up-up) to more advanced and short term tactics. As for the point of entry, we will surely focus on the timing tactics at least for large caps / big names in the next weeks.
Ps. If you are a student at WyckoffAnalytics, in the Practicum course Roman teaches a lot of bar-by-bar and campaigning techniques in depth.
Hi Alessio, I attended Roman’s course on tape reading. It was great and it’s also good to keep learning the skills with practical examples in the different markets. This recent Anatomy of the Trade vid perfectly illustrates what I meant – https://youtu.be/6qgLJqdrYQY?t=1050 (from 17:30 to 19:14). I understand 30 mins is not a lot of time. Perhaps it would be good to cover a few scenarios of the primary market (BTCUSD chart)? Personally I believe even if the trend is up, it’s a valuable exercise to be prepared for the market turning on any day. It’s an exercise that I do with my own analysis (e.g. see my post on this forum @ 08/23/2020 at 2:04 AM in response to your question about different scenarios) and it would be good to compare my notes with you.
Short term view on Bitcoin. Tape reading on 2h. Still constructive picture
1. Small ChoCh: no elements of distribution. Upsloping range, structural strength
Hi, Alessio. BNB looks very nice for 2021 investment. What do think about this?
What do you think of XRP? Thanks, Declan
Hi Declan, good work. I would just replace your BC with AR, and insert the Selling Climax labeling on the low in September. Sometimes we see a Selling Climax with low volume and big spreads, like in this case, followed by an Automatic rally with high volume. It’s quite rare to see this stopping action, but it occurs in low liquidity environment.
The idea of the dowsnloping accumulation makes sense. 90% of altcoins are in a cyclical reaccumulation structure, and XRP is not an expection. However, I have a question for you, here is a chart with XRP and ChainLink. Which of these two assets has shown more interest by institutions? Which of these two assets has been aggressively absorbed by crypto funds in these years and suggest better performances?
We will discuss the chart in the Wyckoff Crypto Discussion.
Thanks for your reply.
Definitely Chainlink has been bought aggressively. Looking forward to your analysis.
Hi Declan, we have not covered XRP in our last WCD because we had so many pending submissions, but I am preparing an interesting historical study based on XRP , LTC, ETH. Stay tuned and keep up the good work.
Wyckoff Crypto Discussion vol V
Hi Alessio. What do you think about BAND?
Hi Alex, price is residing in a local trading range at the bottom of a larger structure. I love the fact that you have posted the BANDBTC chart too. The fact that we have on the BANDBTC chart a LH is not very bullish. It suggests that the Composite Man is not aggressively buying right now.
That said, supply looks very exhausted, and if the whole market this week have further up days, we can see here what we call “a technical rally”(supply is exhausted, price rallies on low demand). A technical rally would lead us toword the leve of the resistance, in this case $7.4. If you are looking for a scalp within the boundary of the range, I think it can work, but you have to monitor the tade on the 30min timeframe.
Hi Alessio, thanks for the weekly market discussion vids. I enrolled in the Tape Reading course and posted 2 ETHUSD charts to the Charts, Analysis and Trading Forum (the first Forum in the Forums list) looking for some feedback from a tape reading/volume & spread analysis perspective. It would be great to get your feedback there.
Drag0nflai, we have analyzed in depth your request in yesterday’s Wyckoff Crypto Discussion, it’s the final chart, 19:20
A flash update on Bitcoin here:
and.. and finally here is our new Wyckoff Crypto Discussion, our new weekly VLog totally devoted to Cryptos!
The Wyckoff Crypto Report vol. 32 is out
Bitcoin analysis, DeFi Perpetuals, YFI Balancer, PolkaDOT, YFI, AmpleForth
Alessio, is there a difference in charting altcoins using USD pair or BTC pair when doing crypto wyckoff analysis? I tend to find USD pair charts to be neater than BTC pairs, however if majority of crypto trading is happening via BTC Whales then perhaps BTC pairs are better? thanks
I have replied to your question in the new Crypto Report. Thanks for following us!
The Wyckoff Crypto Report vol. 28
Profit taking in the stock market, Crypto still holding the gains
Rotation in play. Bitcoin. DeFi Index
Crypto Indexes. Low caps. Mid caps. Large Caps. Bitcoin.
XTZ bullish scenario and Points of entry
Small cap Index (via FTX). 4h chart.
first of all thank you Alessio for all the reports. I’ve attended your webinar and I learned a lot, I’m starting the Wyckoff Part I course the next week and I’m so excited about it too. Love all the Wyckoff Analytics content. I’ll attach my bearish bias (even tho we are still in a bullish trend) so you can review it and help me improve. I only have 2 years and a half experience since my first touch with trading so my analysis may be so bad.
Also I’m wondering if the CME chart is better for the analysis? Are in this chart more institution footprints? Finally I want to ask you if we may treat low cap coins (that are not in the index) as shitcoins so if we see strength on the index we may look at this coins too or just the ones that are representing the index?
PD: The squares on the chart are places to pay attention to.
thank you, much love for your affair to spread valuable information
I am very glad that you have decided to enroll WTC.
In my experience, I have noticed that the volume signature of BitMex and Binance is more accurate for our goals, since institutions operating in this space use traditional crypto exchange as well.
On Bitmex, volume is still decreasing toward the support, a bullish signs for now. Let’s review together the price action:
-high volume at point 1: supply is present
– bar 2: effort to the downside, result to the downside. Selling is present but..
-..the selling has not produced a lower low for now. At point 3 we see a local increase of volume and price creates a Higher low. There is demand!
– 4 volume is decreasing but price is rallying and supply looks exausted. The downspreads are very small at point 4.
My bias is still bullish at this point.
However, a trader should always consider tactical scenarios, and the work that you have done is very good. Let’s raise the bar now andet’s define bearish/bullish levels, points of dangers not only looking at the structure, but also looking at the volume.
Let’s look at the area indicated by the blue square: this is the level where the last significant selling has occurred. If you are bearish, you shoud expect a bearish behaviour when price revisits this area (for example high effort to the upside, low result = selling!) followed by a reversal confirmation.
You can definitely compare small caps to SHITPERP that are not included in the index. Also look at the DEFIPERP and the new index UNISWAP-PERP, these are thesectors that currenlty show a lot of momentum.
Hi Alessio, thanks for the weekly report. A few other scenarios in my chart attached.
I’d appreciate any feedback.
By the way, what are your thoughts about the Gold & Silver price actions? The Silver futures volume on Aug 11 is the highest ever (higher even than the volume at the blow-off top in May 2011). Extended consolidation coming up in the previous metals potentially?
Hi dragonfly, thanks for your kind words, glad you are enjoying our reports. I have just posted the bullish scenario for Bitcoin in my reply to Ethox, let’s see how the price action will develop in the next days.
Gold and silve are now consolidating and need to rest a bit and digest the supply emerged at these levels, but the long term bias is still up, we are in a multi-year accumulation.
Bitcoin very often tends to be correlated to Gold, however think of the rest of the crypto market: low caps and midcaps still do not present signs of significant supply, and the DEFI-PERP (the index of DeFi assets) show a very, very interesting picture.
This is a preview of a chart that we will discuss in the next days. PnF counts add another layer to this analysis.
When Bitcoin is lagging, always look at the leading sectors…like SH*TPERP, DEFIPERP and UNISWAP-PERP. They will will help you to define the trend of the market.
Thank you for your analysis and the new weekly reports, Alessio. The selection/RS game is great. I’d love to see more of those.
The Wyckoff Crypto Report vol. 27 is out, you can read it here:
Bitcoin. S&P. 4D chart.
Bitcoin Trading Diary
Crypto Sector Analysis.
Point and Figure / Effort versus Result
These last 3 daily bars seem constructive. Would they confirm a jump across the ceeek? Or is more volume and price spread needed to confirm that?
Thanks in advance for everyone’s time and contributions here.
Hi pmpaulmc, let’s think in terms of horizontal levels, effort and result. The last area in the range where supply has came in and produced a significant move to the downside was the $9600 level (dotted line. 1). After the selling that came in at that level, we have seen shortening of the downward thrust. The reaction at point is a HL on very low volatility, a sign of absorption. Now peice is pushing through the $9600 level, and we see three bars with increasing volume but slighly decreasing effort to the upside. The last downbar is quite small. We have two options:
a) high probability. Absorption continue on the way up and price accelerate toward to the $10K zone
b) low probability: price can’t commit above this resistancea and fails here.
Today’s price action seems to confirm the absorption scenario.
Sold at $11,100….. 22% up from apex breakout entry point…..waiting for next accumulation/ distribution setup to identify
thanks again for all the education and insight here.
Thanks for the excellent visual explanation. Appreciate the time and feedback.
Eth, the digital silver – moving at 4x the speed?
Yes, spectacular analog. Also the ETHBTC charts is very interesting.